Economic Calendar

Tuesday, January 28: Consumer confidence

Wednesday, January 29: FOMC interest-rate decision

Thursday, January 30: Pending home sales

S&P 500

WoW
1.74%
YTD
3.73%
YOY
24.66%
16.2x LTM EBITDA; 14.9x NTM EBITDA

Dow Jones

WoW
2.15%
YTD
4.42%
YOY
16.75%
11.6x LTM EBITDA; 13.7x NTM EBITDA

Nasdaq

WoW
1.65%
YTD
3.33%
YOY
28.65%

Ten Year US Treasury Yield

WoW
4.67%
YTD
5 bps
YOY
51 bps

British Pound per USD: $1.25

WoW
2.6%
YTD
0.3%
YOY
1.8%

Euro per USD: $1.05

WoW
2.2%
YTD
1.4%
YOY
3.2%

USD per Yen: ¥156.00;

WoW
0.2%
YTD
0.8%
YOY
5.6%

Swiss franc per EUR: 1.05 CH₣

WoW
1.2%
YTD
1.3%
YOY
1.1%

U.S. News

  • U.S. Leading Economic Indicators
      • The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.1% in December 2024 to 101.6, marking a 1.3% decline over the second half of 2024
      • The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.4% in December 2024 to 114.1, with all four components—payroll employment, personal income, trade sales, and industrial production—improving
      • The LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, indicating reduced economic headwinds, with a projected U.S. GDP growth of 2.3% for 2025
  • Existing Home Sales
      • The median price of a U.S. home sold in 2024 reached a record high of $407,500, with December’s median price at $404,400 (up 6% year-over-year)
      • U.S. existing-home sales in 2024 fell to 4.06 million, the lowest level since 1995, driven by high mortgage rates (around 7%) and low inventory
      • Despite challenges, December 2024 saw a 2.2% rise in home sales compared to November, marking the third consecutive month of annual growth
  • Consumer Sentiment
      • The Consumer Sentiment index fell to 71.1 in January 2025, a 3.9% month-over-month decline and a 10% drop year-over-year
      • Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, while long-run inflation expectations increased to 3.2%
      • 47% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest level since the pandemic recession
  • Jobless Claims
      • Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased
        to 223,000 in the week ended January 17, up 6,000 from the prior week.
      • The four-week moving average was 213,500, up 750 from the prior week.
      • Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – decreased by
        46,000 to 1.899 million in the week ended January 10. This figure is reported with a one-week
        lag.

  • Fed’s Balance Sheet
      • The Federal Reserve’s assets totaled $6.832 trillion in the week ended January 24, down $2.3
        billion from the prior week.
      • Treasury holdings totaled $4.275 trillion, down $14.1 billion from the prior week.
      • Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.23 trillion in the week, down $1.0 billion
        from the prior week.

  • Total Public Debt
      • Total public debt outstanding was $36.22 trillion as of January 24, an increase of 6.1% from the
        previous year.
      • Debt held by the public was $28.88 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.38 trillion.

  • Inflation Factors
  • CPI:
        • The consumer-price index rose 2.9% in December year over year.
        • On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis,
          after increasing 0.3% in November.
        • The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in December, after
          rising 0.3% in November.
        • Core CPI increased 3.2% for the 12 months ending December.
  • Food & Beverages:
        • The food at home index increased 1.8% in December from the same month a year earlier,
          and increased 0.3% in December month over month.
        • The food away from home index increased 3.6% in December from the same month a year
          earlier, and increasing 0.3% in December month over month.
  • Commodities:
        • The energy commodities index increased 4.3% in December after increasing 0.5% in
        • The energy commodities index fell (3.8%) over the last 12 months.
        • The energy services index rose 0.8% in December after decreasing (0.5%) in November.
        • The energy services index rose 3.3% over the last 12 months.
        • The gasoline index fell (3.4%) over the last 12 months.
        • The fuel oil index fell (13.1%) over the last 12 months.
        • The index for electricity rose 2.8% over the last 12 months.
        • The index for natural gas rose 4.9% over the last 12 months.
  • Supply Chain:
        • Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased to $3,444.74 per 40ft container
        • Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (13.1%) over the last 12 months.
  • Housing Market:
        • The shelter index increased 0.3% in December after increasing 0.3% in November.
        • The rent index increased 0.3% in December after increasing 0.3% in November.
        • The index for lodging away from home decreased (2.1%) in December after decreasing
          (1.0%) in November.
  • Federal Funds Rate
      • The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 4.33%, flat 0.00% year to date.

World News

  • Middle East
      • Following the cease-fire in Gaza, Hamas deployed thousands of its forces onto the streets, reasserting control over the territory and managing law and order, while maintaining its dominant position amidst ongoing reconstruction efforts
      • President Trump proposed moving Gaza refugees to Egypt or Jordan, an idea rejected by both nations due to concerns about destabilization
      • Houthi rebels released the crew of the Galaxy Leader and announced a pause in attacks on Red Sea vessels as part of the Gaza cease-fire agreement
      • Two Iranian ships in China were loaded with sodium perchlorate, a key ingredient for ballistic missile production, demonstrating Iran’s continued reliance on Chinese support for its missile program
  • UK
      • The U.K. government’s budget deficit in December 2024 reached £17.8 billion, which was £10.1 billion higher than the same month in 2023 and exceeded the forecast of £14.2 billion by the Office for Budget Responsibility
      • For the fiscal year to date, the government borrowed £129.9 billion, making it the second-highest figure on record after 2020
      • The U.K. unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in the three months through November 2024, marking its joint-highest level since 2021, while average regular pay grew by 5.6% during the same period
      • Prince Harry settled a privacy invasion case against Rupert Murdoch’s U.K. tabloids, with News Group Newspapers apologizing and agreeing to pay substantial damages for unlawful activities like phone hacking and surveillance
  • China
      • China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signaling Beijing’s willingness to engage with the Trump administration despite past sanctions on Rubio
      • President Trump has delayed imposing immediate tariffs on Chinese imports, leaving room for negotiations until at least April 1, while still threatening a potential 10% import tax
      • During the call, Rubio affirmed that the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence and hopes for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait
      • In response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade threats, China and the European Union are exploring closer economic ties. European leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen and Pedro Sánchez, have expressed interest in strengthening trade relations with China as a countermeasure to potential U.S. tariffs
  • Ireland
      • Storm Éowyn caused widespread devastation in Ireland, leaving over 300,000 properties without power as of Sunday, down from 768,000 on Friday. The storm brought record-breaking winds of 114 mph, toppled infrastructure like telephone poles and a giant wind turbine, and prompted Ireland to call for assistance from England and France
  • Africa
      • The Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group has caused the displacement of an estimated 300,000 people as it advances toward Goma, with reports of widespread civilian harm and the use of advanced weaponry by Rwandan troops
  • South Korea
      • South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been indicted for leading an insurrection following his brief imposition of martial law on December 3, 2024, a move that banned political activity and media, leading to his impeachment and subsequent detention
  • Canada
      • Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned that President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian products, set to potentially take effect February 1, 2025, would raise prices for American consumers on essential goods like oil, lumber, and autos, while Canada prepares retaliatory tariffs
    • Afghanistan
        • The ICC chief prosecutor has requested arrest warrants for Taliban leaders Haibatullah Akhundzada and Abdul Hakim Haqqani, accusing them of crimes against humanity for the systemic persecution of women and girls in Afghanistan, marking the first case focused on gender-based persecution as a central crime
    • Sudan
        • The U.S. has sanctioned Sudan’s de facto president, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, as punishment for his handling of the country’s devastating civil war. The decision comes one week after the Biden administration accused Burhan’s rival, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, of committing genocide by targeting Black Sudanese in the Darfur region
    • Japan
        • The Biden administration’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel on national-security grounds has strained U.S.- Japan relations, risking a chilling effect on Japanese investment in the U.S. and undermining cooperation against China, despite the deep economic ties and progress in market reforms between the two countries

    Commodities

    • Oil Prices
        • WTI: $74.66 per barrel
          • (4.13%) WoW; 4.10% YTD; (0.57%) YoY
        • Brent: $78.50 per barrel
          • (2.83%) WoW; 5.17% YTD; (1.92%) YoY
    • US Production
        • U.S. oil production amounted to 13.5 million bpd for the week ended January 17, down 0.1 million
          bpd from the prior week.
    • Rig Count
        • The total number of oil rigs amounted to 576, down 4 from last week.
    • Inventories
        • Crude Oil
          • Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 411.7 million barrels, down (2.1%) YoY.
          • Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 85.9% for the week, down from 91.7%
            in the prior week.
          • U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.124 million barrels per day, down 20.9% YoY.
        • Gasoline
          • Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.13 per gallon in the week of
            January 24, up 1.0% YoY.
          • Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.18, up 1.5% YoY.
          • Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.06, up 3.3% YoY.
          • Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.79, up 0.5% YoY.
          • Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.03, up 8.9% YoY.
          • Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.01, down (1.2%) YoY.
          • Motor gasoline inventories were up by 2.3 million barrels from the prior week.
          • Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 245.9 million barrels, down (2.8%) YoY.
          • Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.24 million bpd, up 11.0% YoY.
          • Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.086 million bpd, up 2.6% YoY.
        • Distillates
          • Distillate inventories decreased by -3.1 million in the week of January 24.
          • Total distillate inventories amounted to 128.9 million barrels, down (3.3%) YoY.
          • Distillate production averaged 4.710 million bpd, up 4.7% YoY.
          • Demand for distillates averaged 4.108 million bpd in the week, up 8.6% YoY.
    • Natural Gas
        • Natural gas inventories decreased by 223 billion cubic feet last week.
        • Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,892 billion cubic feet, up 1.3% YoY.

    Credit News

    High yield bond yields decreased 11bps to 7.21% and spreads decreased 12bps to 282bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 2bps to 8.81% and spreads decreased 1bps to 472bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 52bps. WTD Leveraged loan returns were positive 20bps. The 10-year Treasury yield increased 3bps to 4.64%. Yield and spreads tightened due to light January calendar, renewed inflows, and positive macro that signals from a smooth start to earnings season.

    High-yield:

    Week ended 01/24/2025

    • Yields & Spreads1
    • Pricing & Returns1
    • Fund Flows2
    • New Issue2
    • Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)2
    • Total HY Defaults

    1 Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
    2 Source: JP Morgan

    Leveraged loans:

    Week ended 01/24/2025

    • Yields & Spreads1
    • Leveraged Loan Index1
    • Fund Flows2
    • New Issue2
    • Distressed Level (loan price below $80)1
    • Total Loan Defaults
    Default activity:
    • Most recent defaults include: The Container Store ($163mn, 12/22/2024), Party City ($264mn, 12/21/2024), Hearthside Food Solutions ($2.6bn, 11/22/24), Spirit Airlines ($1.1bn, 11/18/24), Franchise Group Inc ($1.1bn, 11/3/24), Exactech ($254mn, 10/29/24), American Tire Distributors ($975mn, 10/23/24), and Accuride ($291mn, 10/11/2024).
    CLOs:

    Week ended 01/24/2025

    • New U.S. CLO Issuance2
    • New U.S. CLO Issuance2

    Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

    1 Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
    2 Source: JP Morgan

    Ratings activity:
    • S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings
    Appendix:

    Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

    Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

    Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

    Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns


    Diagram J: Leveraged Loan Defaults by Sector – Full Year

    Diagram L: CLO Economics

    Diagram N: Developed Country GovBond Yields (%)

    Diagram O: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

    Diagram P: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

    Diagram Q: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA

    Diagram R: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

    Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

    Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

    Diagram U: SOFR CURVE

    Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

    Freight Rates

    Drewry World Container Index

    China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index

U.S. News

  • U.S. Leading Economic Indicators
      • The Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.1% in December 2024 to 101.6, marking a 1.3% decline over the second half of 2024
      • The Coincident Economic Index (CEI) for the U.S. rose by 0.4% in December 2024 to 114.1, with all four components—payroll employment, personal income, trade sales, and industrial production—improving
      • The LEI’s six-month and twelve-month growth rates were less negative, indicating reduced economic headwinds, with a projected U.S. GDP growth of 2.3% for 2025
  • Existing Home Sales
      • The median price of a U.S. home sold in 2024 reached a record high of $407,500, with December’s median price at $404,400 (up 6% year-over-year)
      • U.S. existing-home sales in 2024 fell to 4.06 million, the lowest level since 1995, driven by high mortgage rates (around 7%) and low inventory
      • Despite challenges, December 2024 saw a 2.2% rise in home sales compared to November, marking the third consecutive month of annual growth
  • Consumer Sentiment
      • The Consumer Sentiment index fell to 71.1 in January 2025, a 3.9% month-over-month decline and a 10% drop year-over-year
      • Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.3%, the highest since May 2024, while long-run inflation expectations increased to 3.2%
      • 47% of consumers expect unemployment to rise in the year ahead, the highest level since the pandemic recession
  • Jobless Claims
      • Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased
        to 223,000 in the week ended January 17, up 6,000 from the prior week.
      • The four-week moving average was 213,500, up 750 from the prior week.
      • Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – decreased by
        46,000 to 1.899 million in the week ended January 10. This figure is reported with a one-week
        lag.

  • Fed’s Balance Sheet
      • The Federal Reserve’s assets totaled $6.832 trillion in the week ended January 24, down $2.3
        billion from the prior week.
      • Treasury holdings totaled $4.275 trillion, down $14.1 billion from the prior week.
      • Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.23 trillion in the week, down $1.0 billion
        from the prior week.

  • Total Public Debt
      • Total public debt outstanding was $36.22 trillion as of January 24, an increase of 6.1% from the
        previous year.
      • Debt held by the public was $28.88 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.38 trillion.

  • Inflation Factors
  • CPI:
        • The consumer-price index rose 2.9% in December year over year.
        • On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.4% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis,
          after increasing 0.3% in November.
        • The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in December, after
          rising 0.3% in November.
        • Core CPI increased 3.2% for the 12 months ending December.
  • Food & Beverages:
        • The food at home index increased 1.8% in December from the same month a year earlier,
          and increased 0.3% in December month over month.
        • The food away from home index increased 3.6% in December from the same month a year
          earlier, and increasing 0.3% in December month over month.
  • Commodities:
        • The energy commodities index increased 4.3% in December after increasing 0.5% in
        • The energy commodities index fell (3.8%) over the last 12 months.
        • The energy services index rose 0.8% in December after decreasing (0.5%) in November.
        • The energy services index rose 3.3% over the last 12 months.
        • The gasoline index fell (3.4%) over the last 12 months.
        • The fuel oil index fell (13.1%) over the last 12 months.
        • The index for electricity rose 2.8% over the last 12 months.
        • The index for natural gas rose 4.9% over the last 12 months.
  • Supply Chain:
        • Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased to $3,444.74 per 40ft container
        • Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (13.1%) over the last 12 months.
  • Housing Market:
        • The shelter index increased 0.3% in December after increasing 0.3% in November.
        • The rent index increased 0.3% in December after increasing 0.3% in November.
        • The index for lodging away from home decreased (2.1%) in December after decreasing
          (1.0%) in November.
  • Federal Funds Rate
      • The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 4.33%, flat 0.00% year to date.

World News

  • Middle East
      • Following the cease-fire in Gaza, Hamas deployed thousands of its forces onto the streets, reasserting control over the territory and managing law and order, while maintaining its dominant position amidst ongoing reconstruction efforts
      • President Trump proposed moving Gaza refugees to Egypt or Jordan, an idea rejected by both nations due to concerns about destabilization
      • Houthi rebels released the crew of the Galaxy Leader and announced a pause in attacks on Red Sea vessels as part of the Gaza cease-fire agreement
      • Two Iranian ships in China were loaded with sodium perchlorate, a key ingredient for ballistic missile production, demonstrating Iran’s continued reliance on Chinese support for its missile program
  • UK
      • The U.K. government’s budget deficit in December 2024 reached £17.8 billion, which was £10.1 billion higher than the same month in 2023 and exceeded the forecast of £14.2 billion by the Office for Budget Responsibility
      • For the fiscal year to date, the government borrowed £129.9 billion, making it the second-highest figure on record after 2020
      • The U.K. unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in the three months through November 2024, marking its joint-highest level since 2021, while average regular pay grew by 5.6% during the same period
      • Prince Harry settled a privacy invasion case against Rupert Murdoch’s U.K. tabloids, with News Group Newspapers apologizing and agreeing to pay substantial damages for unlawful activities like phone hacking and surveillance
  • China
      • China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a phone conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, signaling Beijing’s willingness to engage with the Trump administration despite past sanctions on Rubio
      • President Trump has delayed imposing immediate tariffs on Chinese imports, leaving room for negotiations until at least April 1, while still threatening a potential 10% import tax
      • During the call, Rubio affirmed that the U.S. does not support Taiwan independence and hopes for a peaceful resolution of the Taiwan issue acceptable to both sides of the Taiwan Strait
      • In response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade threats, China and the European Union are exploring closer economic ties. European leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen and Pedro Sánchez, have expressed interest in strengthening trade relations with China as a countermeasure to potential U.S. tariffs
  • Ireland
      • Storm Éowyn caused widespread devastation in Ireland, leaving over 300,000 properties without power as of Sunday, down from 768,000 on Friday. The storm brought record-breaking winds of 114 mph, toppled infrastructure like telephone poles and a giant wind turbine, and prompted Ireland to call for assistance from England and France
  • Africa
      • The Rwandan-backed M23 rebel group has caused the displacement of an estimated 300,000 people as it advances toward Goma, with reports of widespread civilian harm and the use of advanced weaponry by Rwandan troops
  • South Korea
      • South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol has been indicted for leading an insurrection following his brief imposition of martial law on December 3, 2024, a move that banned political activity and media, leading to his impeachment and subsequent detention
  • Canada
      • Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau warned that President Donald Trump’s proposed 25% tariffs on Canadian products, set to potentially take effect February 1, 2025, would raise prices for American consumers on essential goods like oil, lumber, and autos, while Canada prepares retaliatory tariffs
    • Afghanistan
        • The ICC chief prosecutor has requested arrest warrants for Taliban leaders Haibatullah Akhundzada and Abdul Hakim Haqqani, accusing them of crimes against humanity for the systemic persecution of women and girls in Afghanistan, marking the first case focused on gender-based persecution as a central crime
    • Sudan
        • The U.S. has sanctioned Sudan’s de facto president, Lieutenant General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, as punishment for his handling of the country’s devastating civil war. The decision comes one week after the Biden administration accused Burhan’s rival, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, of committing genocide by targeting Black Sudanese in the Darfur region
    • Japan
        • The Biden administration’s decision to block Nippon Steel’s acquisition of U.S. Steel on national-security grounds has strained U.S.- Japan relations, risking a chilling effect on Japanese investment in the U.S. and undermining cooperation against China, despite the deep economic ties and progress in market reforms between the two countries

Commodities

  • Oil Prices
      • WTI: $74.66 per barrel
        • (4.13%) WoW; 4.10% YTD; (0.57%) YoY
      • Brent: $78.50 per barrel
        • (2.83%) WoW; 5.17% YTD; (1.92%) YoY
  • US Production
      • U.S. oil production amounted to 13.5 million bpd for the week ended January 17, down 0.1 million
        bpd from the prior week.
  • Rig Count
      • The total number of oil rigs amounted to 576, down 4 from last week.
  • Inventories
      • Crude Oil
        • Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 411.7 million barrels, down (2.1%) YoY.
        • Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 85.9% for the week, down from 91.7%
          in the prior week.
        • U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.124 million barrels per day, down 20.9% YoY.
      • Gasoline
        • Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.13 per gallon in the week of
          January 24, up 1.0% YoY.
        • Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.18, up 1.5% YoY.
        • Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.06, up 3.3% YoY.
        • Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.79, up 0.5% YoY.
        • Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.03, up 8.9% YoY.
        • Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.01, down (1.2%) YoY.
        • Motor gasoline inventories were up by 2.3 million barrels from the prior week.
        • Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 245.9 million barrels, down (2.8%) YoY.
        • Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.24 million bpd, up 11.0% YoY.
        • Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.086 million bpd, up 2.6% YoY.
      • Distillates
        • Distillate inventories decreased by -3.1 million in the week of January 24.
        • Total distillate inventories amounted to 128.9 million barrels, down (3.3%) YoY.
        • Distillate production averaged 4.710 million bpd, up 4.7% YoY.
        • Demand for distillates averaged 4.108 million bpd in the week, up 8.6% YoY.
  • Natural Gas
      • Natural gas inventories decreased by 223 billion cubic feet last week.
      • Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,892 billion cubic feet, up 1.3% YoY.

Credit News

High yield bond yields decreased 11bps to 7.21% and spreads decreased 12bps to 282bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 2bps to 8.81% and spreads decreased 1bps to 472bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 52bps. WTD Leveraged loan returns were positive 20bps. The 10-year Treasury yield increased 3bps to 4.64%. Yield and spreads tightened due to light January calendar, renewed inflows, and positive macro that signals from a smooth start to earnings season.

High-yield:

Week ended 01/24/2025

  • Yields & Spreads1
  • Pricing & Returns1
  • Fund Flows2
  • New Issue2
  • Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)2
  • Total HY Defaults

1 Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
2 Source: JP Morgan

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 01/24/2025

  • Yields & Spreads1
  • Leveraged Loan Index1
  • Fund Flows2
  • New Issue2
  • Distressed Level (loan price below $80)1
  • Total Loan Defaults
Default activity:
  • Most recent defaults include: The Container Store ($163mn, 12/22/2024), Party City ($264mn, 12/21/2024), Hearthside Food Solutions ($2.6bn, 11/22/24), Spirit Airlines ($1.1bn, 11/18/24), Franchise Group Inc ($1.1bn, 11/3/24), Exactech ($254mn, 10/29/24), American Tire Distributors ($975mn, 10/23/24), and Accuride ($291mn, 10/11/2024).
CLOs:

Week ended 01/24/2025

  • New U.S. CLO Issuance2
  • New U.S. CLO Issuance2

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

1 Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
2 Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:
  • S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings
Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns


Diagram J: Leveraged Loan Defaults by Sector – Full Year

Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram N: Developed Country GovBond Yields (%)

Diagram O: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram P: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR CURVE

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index

S&P 500

WoW
1.74%
YTD
3.73%
YOY
24.66%
16.2x LTM EBITDA; 14.9x NTM EBITDA

Dow Jones

WoW
2.15%
YTD
4.42%
YOY
16.75%
11.6x LTM EBITDA; 13.7x NTM EBITDA

Nasdaq

WoW
1.65%
YTD
3.33%
YOY
28.65%

Ten Year US Treasury Yield

WoW
4.67%
YTD
5 bps
YOY
51 bps

British Pound per USD: $1.25

WoW
2.6%
YTD
0.3%
YOY
1.8%

Euro per USD: $1.05

WoW
2.2%
YTD
1.4%
YOY
3.2%

USD per Yen: ¥156.00;

WoW
0.2%
YTD
0.8%
YOY
5.6%

Swiss franc per EUR: 1.05 CH₣

WoW
1.2%
YTD
1.3%
YOY
1.1%