U.S. News

• Consumer Confidence

• • • The consumer confidence index fell from 100.1 in February to 92.9 in March. This is the fourth decline in a row and the lowest reading for over four years (January 2021)
    • While confidence rose with Trump’s election in November, consumers and businesses have grown weary of trade wars; both cite inflation and a weakening economy for lower confidence
    • The expectations index decreased from 74.8 in February to 65.2 in March. This is the worst reading since 2013, and according to analysts, a sustained reading below 80 tends to indicate a recession

• PCE Index

• • • The PCE index rose 0.3% last month, meeting forecasts. The twelve-month rate of inflation was unchanged at 2.5%, above the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2%
    • The core rate of inflation rose 0.4% in February, above the forecasted 0.3%. The twelve-month increase in the core PCE rose from 2.7% to 2.8%
    • The recent rise in inflation caused the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady. Economists predict more upward pressure on inflation due to the Trump tariffs on goods such as new cars and steel

• Durable Goods Orders

• • • Orders for long-lasting durable goods rose almost 1% in February, above the forecasted 1% decline. U.S. companies moved to procure supplies and inventory ahead of impending tariffs announced by the Trump administration
    • Orders for primary metals and appliances increased for the second consecutive month. U.S. manufacturers purchased supplies before tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum took effect
    • In addition, orders for new autos rose last month, driven by announced tariffs on parts and vehicles from Mexico and Canada

• U.S. Tariff & Trade

• • • President Trump issued a proclamation imposing a 25 percent tariff starting on April 2nd for passenger vehicles, light trucks, engines and engine parts, transmission and powertrain parts, and electrical components
    • President Trump issued an executive order opening the door for 25 percent tariffs on imports from countries that import oil from Venezuela. China, India, and Spain, which, along with the U.S., are the four biggest importers of Venezuelan oil
    • President Trump is still expected to announce “reciprocal tariffs” on a host of nations on April 2nd, however, the tariff is now expected to be more targeted and narrower than what the president has vowed previously
    • Ocean carriers on the eastbound trans-Pacific are adjusting their 2025-26 contract rate expectations downward due to concerns over the U.S. economy, with rates now expected to be around $1,800–$2,200 per Forty Foot Equivalent Unit (FEU) to the West Coast and $2,900 – $3,300 per FEU to the East Coast

  Target Country	Tariffs	Goods Targeted	Effective Date	Tariff %
  China	Sec 301 China Origin Tariffs	Most goods	7/16/2018	Most CN goods have total tariffs ranging from 27.5% to 45%, with select goods facing tariffs as high as 100%
  	4 Year Review of Sec 301	Select goods such as electric vehicles, batteries, syringes, medical gloves, and solar cells	9/27/2024
  	IEEPA China	All goods of Chinese origin	2/1/2025
  Canada	IEEPA Canada	All goods, except USMCA qualifying goods	3/4/2025	25%, except 10% on energy products
  Mexico	IEEPA Mexico Tariff	All goods, except USMCA qualifying goods	3/4/2025	25%
  All	Sec 232 Steel / Aluminum & Derivatives	Steel, aluminum, and certain derivatives of steel and aluminum	3/12/2025	25%
  All	Automotive	Passenger vehicles, light trucks, engines and engine parts, transmission and powertrain parts, and electrical components	4/2/2025	25%

  
  

  Target Country	Potential Tariff Action	Threatened Effective Date	Tariff Rate
  All Countries	Reciprocal Tariffs	4/2/2025	Unspecified
  All Countries	Semiconductors	4/2/2025	25%
  All Countries	Pharmaceuticals	4/2/2025	25%
  All Countries	Food & Agricultural Products	4/2/2025	Unspecified
  China, India, Spain	Importers of Venezuelan Oil	4/2/2025	25%
  All Countries	Copper	11/22/2025	Unspecified
  All Countries	Timber & Lumber	11/26/2025	Unspecified
  All Countries	Retaliatory Tariffs	12/31/2025	Unspecified

• Jobless Claims

• • • Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 224,000 in the week ended March 21, down 1,000 from the prior week.
    • The four-week moving average was 224,000, down 4,750 from the prior week.
    • Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – decreased by 25,000 to 1.856 million in the week ended March 14. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

• Fed’s Balance Sheet

• • • The Federal Reserves assets totaled $6.740 trillion in the week ended March 28, down $15.7 billion from the prior week.
    • Treasury holdings totaled $4.237 trillion, down $2.8 billion from the prior week.
    • Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.20 trillion in the week, down $6.3 billion from the prior week.

• Total Public Debt

• • • Total public debt outstanding was $36.22 trillion as of March 28, an increase of 4.7% from the previous year.
    • Debt held by the public was $28.92 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.30 trillion.

• GDP

• • • The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $29.72 trillion as of December 31, an increase of 5.03% from the previous year
    • The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.87% as of December 31, an increase of 1.71% from the previous year

• Inflation Factors

• CPI:

• • • • The consumer-price index rose 2.8% in February year over year.
      • On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5% in January.
      • The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in February, after rising 0.4% in January.
      • Core CPI increased 3.1% for the 12 months ending February.

• Food & Beverages:

• • • • The food at home index increased 1.8% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.0% in February month over month.
      • The food away from home index increased 3.7% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.4% in February month over month.

• Commodities:

• • • • The energy commodities index decreased (0.9%) in February after increasing 1.9%
      • The energy commodities index fell (3.2%) over the last 12 months.
      • The energy services index rose 0.8% in February after increasing 1.8% in January.
      • The energy services index rose 3.3% over the last 12 months.
      • The gasoline index fell (3.1%) over the last 12 months.
      • The fuel oil index fell (5.1%) over the last 12 months.
      • The index for electricity rose 2.5% over the last 12 months.
      • The index for natural gas rose 6.0% over the last 12 months.

• Supply Chain:

• • • • Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased to $2,168.36 per 40ft
      • Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (26.0%) over the last 12 months.

• Housing Market:

• • • • The shelter index increased 0.3% in February after increasing 0.4% in January.
      • The rent index increased 0.2% in February after increasing 0.4% in January.
      • The index for lodging away from home increased 2.9% in February after increasing 3.9% in January.

• Federal Funds Rate

• • • The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 4.33%, flat 0.00% year to date.

World News

• Middle East

• • • Hundreds of Palestinians protested Hamas last week, in a sign of deepening anger against the militant group and frustration over the devastation caused by the war. While Hamas has previously cracked down on dissent, the protests that started Tuesday were met with less-than-usual resistance, demonstrating the weakened position of Hamas in Gaza
    • Israel launched an airstrike on Beirut amid rocket fire from southern Lebanon for the first time since the ceasefire. The action comes after U.S. officials expressed frustration over the Lebanese government’s slow progress in neutralizing Hezbollah
    • Ahmed al-Sharaa, who became the Syrian president after ousting Assad, announced the new cabinet on Saturday, which includes some skilled technocrats. The announcement is part of an effort to establish legitimacy both at home and abroad. The European Union and the U.K. have eased some sanctions since the end of the civil war, while the Trump administration halted similar steps made by the Biden administration

• Europe

• • • President Trump stated that Russia is slow-playing the U.S.-brokered negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. The comments came soon after Russia demanded sanctions relief before complying with a Black-Sea ceasefire deal announced by the White House. Russia’s demands further complicate Trump’s goal of quickly ending the conflict
    • Britain and France have struggled to secure other European allies’ support for troops in Ukraine, due to increasing doubts about the U.S.’s willingness to guarantee their security. French President Emmanuel Macron held a meeting with dozens of European leaders to secure a public commitment but failed to do so after hours of negotiations
    • The Trump administration sent a new agreement to Ukraine that gives the U.S. broad control over Ukraine’s economy and natural resources. For example, the U.S. would draw profits from Ukrainian economic projects across metals, oil, and gas. Analysts stated that Ukraine is unlikely to accept the agreement

• China

• • • The Trump administration added dozens of Chinese companies to a trade blacklist, citing national security concerns. The action was motivated by a desire to enforce stricter limits on China’s access to American technology
    • Xi Jinping met with foreign business executives to discuss trade and globalization. During the meeting, Xi said that multinational corporations should defend trade and continue the “unstoppable” trend of globalization. Further, Xi emphasized that China is open for business and eager to work with foreign companies
    • Chinese industrial companies’ profits fell 0.3% from a year earlier during the first two months of the year, an improvement over the 3.3% decrease in 2024. The National Bureau of Statistics cited new stimulus, such as the consumer trade-in and equipment-upgrade programs, as the cause of the improvement. Beijing has implemented multiple measures to boost growth, including lowering interest rates, easing property restrictions, and increasing government borrowing

• Myanmar

• • • Thousands are presumed dead after a series of earthquakes devastated the country. Most of the dead and injured were in Mandalay and surrounding areas

• Germany

• • • Germany’s jobless rate rose from 6.2% in February to 6.3% in March. Major companies announced increasing layoffs, which threatens to further increase unemployment

• Turkey

• • • Turkish authorities detained Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival to President Erdogan, in a politically charged move that many see as an attempt to eliminate opposition ahead of upcoming elections

• Venezuela

• • • Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro condemned the deportation of over 200 Venezuelan migrants to a notorious El Salvador prison, calling it a “kidnapping” and demanding their return, while the U.S. justified the move by linking the deportees to a criminal gang

• Indonesia

• • • Indonesia’s parliament passed controversial military law revisions allowing more civilian roles for military officers, sparking protests from civil society groups who fear a return to authoritarian rule, while the government defends the revisions as necessary for national security

• Canada

• • • Former central banker Mark Carney decisively won Canada’s Liberal Party leadership race and met with outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to prepare a swift power transition, aiming to confront a damaging trade war with President Trump’s United States

• South Korea

• • • Acting President Choi Sang-mok, worried about being targeted by Trump’s escalating tariffs, wants to communicate directly with Trump to prevent new economic tensions, but the U.S. is reluctant to engage until South Korea’s leadership crisis is resolved

• Sudan

• • • Sudan has categorically refused a request by the U.S. to discuss taking in Palestinian refugees displaced under Donald Trump’s controversial Gaza redevelopment proposal, which involves turning Gaza into a luxury tourist area and displacing its more than 2 million residents

• Pakistan

• • • Pakistani security forces ended a deadly train hijacking by Baloch separatist militants, resulting in the deaths of 21 passengers, 4 paramilitary personnel, and 33 militants, in an attack highlighting ongoing regional tensions

Commodities

• Oil Prices

• • • WTI: $69.36 per barrel
      • +1.58% WoW; (3.29%) YTD; (14.74%) YoY
    • Brent: $73.38 per barrel
      • +1.69% WoW; (1.69%) YTD; (14.76%) YoY

• US Production

• • • U.S. oil production amounted to 13.6 million bpd for the week ended March 21, up 0.0 million
      bpd from the prior week.

• Rig Count

• • • The total number of oil rigs amounted to 592, down 1 from last week.

• Inventories

• • • Crude Oil

      • Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 433.6 million barrels, down (3.3%) YoY.
      • Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 87.0% for the week, up from 86.9%
        in the prior week.
      • U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.385 million barrels per day, down (7.6%) YoY.

    • Gasoline

      • Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.16 per gallon in the week of
        March 28, down (10.7%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.08, down (11.9%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.10, down (10.9%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.84, down (13.1%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.17, down (7.0%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.19, down (8.6%)
      • Motor gasoline inventories were down by 1.4 million barrels from the prior week.
      • Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 239.1 million barrels, up 3.0% YoY.
      • Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.22 million bpd, up 0.1% YoY.
      • Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.643 million bpd, dpwn (0.8%) YoY.

    • Distillates

      • Distillate inventories decreased by -0.4 million in the week of March 28.
      • Total distillate inventories amounted to 114.4 million barrels, down (2.5%) YoY.
      • Distillate production averaged 4.513 million bpd, down (6.3%) YoY.
      • Demand for distillates averaged 3.636 million bpd in the week, down (9.7%) YoY.

• Natural Gas

• • • Natural gas inventories increased by 37 billion cubic feet last week.
    • Total natural gas inventories now amount to 1,744 billion cubic feet, down (24.0%) YoY.

Credit News

High yield bond yields increased 19bps to 7.66% and spreads increased 22bps to 371bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 4bps to 8.56% and spreads decreased 1bps to 490bps. WTD Leveraged loan returns were positive 16bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 50bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 14bps to 4.37%. HY spreads widened as investors weigh risks from trade war, economic slowdown, and sticky inflation. Leveraged loan prices are down in March amid retail outflows and as investors consider trade-related risks.

High-yield:

Week ended 3/28/2025

• Yields & Spreads¹
  
• Pricing & Returns¹
  
• Fund Flows²
  
• New Issue²
  
• Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²
  
• Total HY Defaults
  

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 3/28/2025

• Yields & Spreads¹
  
• Leveraged Loan Index¹
  
• Fund Flows²
  
• New Issue²
  
• Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹
  
• Total Loan Defaults
  

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Mitel Networks ($900mn, 3/9/2025), Rugs USA ($486mn, 3/3/2025), Aimbridge Hospitality ($1.1bn, 1/31/2025), Exela Intermediate LLC ($1.2bn, 1/15/2025), and City Brewing ($886mn, 1/2/2025)

CLOs:

Week ended 3/28/2025

• New U.S. CLO Issuance²
  
• New U.S. CLO Issuance²
  

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings
  

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram N: Developed Country GovBond Yields (%)

Diagram O: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram P: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)x

Diagram Q: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR CURVE

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index