U.S. News

• ISM Manufacturing PMI

• • • The ISM manufacturing index fell to 49% in March, signaling a contraction after 2 months of growth, while supply costs surged to a 2.5 year high
    • The prices-paid index surged 7 points in March to 69.4%. Just 5 months ago, the price gauge stood at a relatively normal 50.3%
    • There were declines in new orders, production, and employment; U.S. manufacturers are struggling due to rising costs and declining demand caused by tariffs on metals and foreign goods

• ISM Services PMI

• • • The ISM services index fell to 50.8% in March, its lowest in 9 months, as government spending cuts and tariff uncertainty weighed on businesses
    • New orders dipped to 50.4%, and the employment index dropped sharply to 46.2%, signaling the slowest hiring pace in nearly a year
    • While the prices-paid index remained above average at 60.9%, executives reported growing cost pressures from tariffs, raising concerns about long-term economic impacts

• U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls

• • • Nonfarm payrolls rose by 228,000 in March, surpassing the 140,000 estimate, with health care, social assistance, and retail leading gains
    • The jobless rate ticked up to 4.2% as labor force participation increased, while average hourly earnings grew 0.3% monthly but remained at a 3.8% annual rate, the lowest since July 2024
    • Despite strong hiring, concerns over potential trade wars could lead companies to slow future job growth

• U.S. Tariff & Trade

• • • Asserting concerns about U.S. national security stemming from imbalanced trade relationships, high trade deficits, and policies by trading partners, President Trump issued an executive order imposing an additional 10% tariff on all imports starting April 5th and an additional 11% to 50% on several dozen countries beginning April 9th
    • In response to the U.S. increasing tariffs, China has taken several retaliatory actions including imposing a 34% tariff on all US Imports starting April 10th, restricting exports of rare earth elements, blocking Chinese firms from investing in U.S assets, and filing a complaint with the WTO, labeling U.S tariffs as “unilateral bullying”
    • Vietnam’s Communist Party General Secretary, To Lam, had a “productive call” with President Trump, offering to reduce tariffs on U.S. goods to zero if the U.S. reciprocates by lowering tariffs on Vietnamese exports, with both leaders agreeing to continue discussions to formalize a bilateral agreement
    • European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement on Wednesday that the European Union is finalizing a package of countermeasures in response to previously imposed 25% levy on steel and is now preparing further countermeasures against the 20% reciprocal tariffs on the E.U.

  Imposed US Tariffs
  Target Country	Tariff	Goods Targeted	Effective Date	Tariff %
  China	Sec 301 China Origin Tariffs	Most goods	7/16/2018	Most CN goods have total tariffs ranging from 61.5% to 79%, with select goods facing tariffs as high as 134%
  	4 Year Review of Sec 301	Select goods such as electric vehicles, batteries, syringes, medical gloves, and solar cells	9/27/2024
  	IEEPA China #1	All goods of Chinese origin	2/1/2025
  	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods of Chinese origin, except	4/9/2025
  Canada	IEEPA Canada	All goods, except USMCA qualifying goods	3/4/2025	25%, except 10% on energy products
  Mexico	IEEPA Mexico	All goods, except USMCA qualifying goods	3/4/2025	25%
  All	Sec 232 Steel, Aluminum & Derivatives	Steel, aluminum, and certain derivatives of steel and aluminum	3/12/2025	25%
  All	Automotive	Passenger vehicles, light trucks, engines and engine parts, transmission and powertrain parts, and electrical components	4/2/2025	25%
  All	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and goods from countries that have a specific IEEPA tariff beginning on 4/9	4/5/2025	10%
  Algeria	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	30%
  Angola	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	32%
  Bangladesh	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	37%
  Bosnia and Herzegovina	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	35%
  Botswana	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	37%
  Brunei	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	24%
  Cambodia	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	49%
  Cameroon	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	11%
  Chad	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	13%
  Côte d’Ivoire	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	21%
  Democratic Republic of the Congo	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	11%
  Equatorial Guinea	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	13%
  European Union	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	20%
  Falkland Islands	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	41%
  Fiji	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	32%
  Guyana	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	38%
  India	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	26%
  Indonesia	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	32%
  Iraq	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	39%
  Israel	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	17%
  Japan	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	24%
  Jordan	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	20%
  Kazakhstan	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	27%
  Laos	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	48%
  Lesotho	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	50%
  Libya	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	31%
  Liechtenstein	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	37%
  Madagascar	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	47%
  Malawi	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	17%
  Malaysia	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	24%
  Mauritius	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	40%
  Moldova	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	31%
  Mozambique	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	16%
  Myanmar (Burma)	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	44%
  Namibia	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	21%
  Nauru	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	30%
  Nicaragua	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	18%
  Nigeria	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	14%
  North Macedonia	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	33%
  Norway	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	15%
  Pakistan	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	29%
  Philippines	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	17%
  Serbia	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	37%
  South Africa	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	30%
  South Korea	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	25%
  Sri Lanka	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	44%
  Switzerland	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	31%
  Syria	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	41%
  Taiwan	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	32%
  Thailand	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	36%
  Tunisia	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	28%
  Vanuatu	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	22%
  Venezuela	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	15%
  Vietnam	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	46%
  Zambia	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	17%
  Zimbabwe	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and other specific exclusions	4/9/2025	18%

• Jobless Claims

• • • Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 219,000 in the week ended March 28, down 6,000 from the prior week.
    • The four-week moving average was 223,000, down 1,250 from the prior week.
    • Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – increased by 56,000 to 1.903 million in the week ended March 21. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

• Fed’s Balance Sheet

• • • The Federal Reserves assets totaled $6.723 trillion in the week ended April 4, down $16.8 billion from the prior week.
    • Treasury holdings totaled $4.230 trillion, down $7.5 billion from the prior week.
    • Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.19 trillion in the week, down $14.3 billion from the prior week.

• Total Public Debt

• • • Total public debt outstanding was $36.22 trillion as of April 4, an increase of 4.7% from the previous year.
    • Debt held by the public was $28.96 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.30 trillion.

• GDP

• • • The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $29.72 trillion as of December 31, an increase of 5.03% from the previous year
    • The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.87% as of December 31, an increase of 1.71% from the previous year

• Inflation Factors

• CPI:

• • • • The consumer-price index rose 2.8% in February year over year.
      • On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.5% in January.
      • The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in February, after rising 0.4% in January.
      • Core CPI increased 3.1% for the 12 months ending February.

• Food & Beverages:

• • • • The food at home index increased 1.8% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.0% in February month over month.
      • The food away from home index increased 3.7% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.4% in February month over month.

• Commodities:

• • • • The energy commodities index decreased (0.9%) in February after increasing 1.9%
      • The energy commodities index fell (3.2%) over the last 12 months.
      • The energy services index rose 0.8% in February after increasing 1.8% in January.
      • The energy services index rose 3.3% over the last 12 months.
      • The gasoline index fell (3.1%) over the last 12 months.
      • The fuel oil index fell (5.1%) over the last 12 months.
      • The index for electricity rose 2.5% over the last 12 months.
      • The index for natural gas rose 6.0% over the last 12 months.

• Supply Chain:

• • • • Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,207.87 per 40ft
      • Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (22.1%) over the last 12 months.

• Housing Market:

• • • • The shelter index increased 0.3% in February after increasing 0.4% in January.
      • The rent index increased 0.2% in February after increasing 0.4% in January.
      • The index for lodging away from home increased 2.9% in February after increasing 3.9% in January.

• Federal Funds Rate

• • • The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 4.33%, flat 0.00% year to date.

World News

• Middle East

• • • The U.S. is seeking direct talks with Iran to dismantle its nuclear program, aiming for a deal more comprehensive than the 2015 agreement. Iran has expressed openness to indirect talks but remains reluctant to fully abandon enrichment
    • The U.S. has deployed military assets to the region while setting a two-month deadline for Iran to negotiate, increasing tensions. Meanwhile, Israel’s military actions have weakened Iran, raising speculation that Tehran may be more inclined to negotiate but also warning of potential retaliatory strikes
    • Israel’s new military chief, Eyal Zamir, is shifting tactics to lead a large-scale ground offensive in Gaza aimed at eliminating Hamas, a departure from previous approaches that focused on targeted operations
    • Zamir’s plan involves deploying tens of thousands of soldiers to occupy Gaza indefinitely and control humanitarian aid distribution, a significant risk in Israel’s 18-month war against Hamas

• Europe

• • • The eurozone economy, already struggling with high energy costs and the Ukraine war’s impact, faces a new threat from a 20% U.S. tariff on EU exports, which could push it into recession
    • While some sectors are exempt from the tariffs, the broader economic impact could be significant, reducing growth and undermining confidence, leading to potential shifts in economic policies
    • German inflation slowed to 2.3% in March from 2.6% in February, below the expected 2.4%, signaling a potential ECB rate cut
    • Core inflation fell to 2.5% in March from 2.7% in February, while services inflation declined, though concerns remain about impacts from higher defense spending and U.S. tariffs

• China

• • • China’s services sector activity expanded in March with the PMI rising to 51.9 from 51.4 in February, reflecting stronger demand driven by government stimulus
    • Despite growth in domestic demand, the services sector faced challenges from a stagnant export market, with employment remaining cautious due to global trade concerns
    • China imposed a blanket 34% tariff on all U.S. goods in retaliation for President Trump’s new trade measures, marking a significant escalation in the trade war and making a near-term deal highly unlikely
    • Alongside the tariffs, China introduced non-tariff measures, including export controls on rare-earth minerals, blacklisting U.S. companies, and launching probes into U.S. firms like DuPont, further intensifying economic tensions

• Hungary

• • • Hungary announced it would withdraw from the International Criminal Court in response to its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, marking a significant challenge to the ICC’s authority in Europe

• Myanmar

• • • Thousands are presumed dead after a series of earthquakes devastated the country. Most of the dead and injured were in Mandalay and surrounding areas

• Germany

• • • Germany’s jobless rate rose from 6.2% in February to 6.3% in March. Major companies announced increasing layoffs, which threatens to further increase unemployment

• Turkey

• • • Turkish authorities detained Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, a key rival to President Erdogan, in a politically charged move that many see as an attempt to eliminate opposition ahead of upcoming elections

• Venezuela

• • • Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro condemned the deportation of over 200 Venezuelan migrants to a notorious El Salvador prison, calling it a “kidnapping” and demanding their return, while the U.S. justified the move by linking the deportees to a criminal gang

• Indonesia

• • • Indonesia’s parliament passed controversial military law revisions allowing more civilian roles for military officers, sparking protests from civil society groups who fear a return to authoritarian rule, while the government defends the revisions as necessary for national security

• Canada

• • • Former central banker Mark Carney decisively won Canada’s Liberal Party leadership race and met with outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to prepare a swift power transition, aiming to confront a damaging trade war with President Trump’s United States

• South Korea

• • • Acting President Choi Sang-mok, worried about being targeted by Trump’s escalating tariffs, wants to communicate directly with Trump to prevent new economic tensions, but the U.S. is reluctant to engage until South Korea’s leadership crisis is resolved

• Sudan

• • • Sudan has categorically refused a request by the U.S. to discuss taking in Palestinian refugees displaced under Donald Trump’s controversial Gaza redevelopment proposal, which involves turning Gaza into a luxury tourist area and displacing its more than 2 million residents

Commodities

• Oil Prices

• • • WTI: $62.59 per barrel
      • (9.76%) WoW; (12.73%) YTD; (26.74%) YoY
    • Brent: $66.21 per barrel
      • (10.08%) WoW; (11.29%) YTD; (25.90%) YoY

• US Production

• • • U.S. oil production amounted to 13.6 million bpd for the week ended March 28, up 0.0 million
      bpd from the prior week.

• Rig Count

• • • The total number of oil rigs amounted to 590, down 2from last week.

• Inventories

• • • Crude Oil

      • Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 439.8 million barrels, down (2.6%) YoY.
      • Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 86.0% for the week, down from 87.0%
        in the prior week.
      • U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.195 million barrels per day, down (2.3%) YoY.

    • Gasoline

      • Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.27 per gallon in the week of
        April 4, down (8.8%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.10, down (10.9%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.16, down (8.3%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.83, down (11.8%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.23, down (6.7%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.32, down (7.8%)
      • Motor gasoline inventories were down by 1.6 million barrels from the prior week.
      • Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 237.6 million barrels, up 4.3% YoY.
      • Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.28 million bpd, down (7.0%) YoY.
      • Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.495 million bpd, down (8.0%) YoY.

    • Distillates

      • Distillate inventories decreased by 0.3 million in the week of April 4.
      • Total distillate inventories amounted to 114.6 million barrels, down (1.2%) YoY.
      • Distillate production averaged 4.677 million bpd, up 1.5% YoY.
      • Demand for distillates averaged 3.679 million bpd in the week, up 5.3% YoY.

• Natural Gas

• • • Natural gas inventories increased by 29 billion cubic feet last week.
    • Total natural gas inventories now amount to 1,773 billion cubic feet, down (21.5%) YoY.

Credit News

High yield bond yields increased 43bps to 7.99% and spreads increased 74bps to 424bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 2bps to 8.62% and spreads increased 32bps to 520bps. WTD Leveraged loan returns were negative 90bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 119bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 31bps to 4.05%. Spreads widened as Trump’s Liberation Day announcement unveiled a remarkably large and broad-based hike in US tariffs that, if sustained, would likely push the US and global economy into recession this year. The uncertainty surrounding trade policy is expected to weigh on business and consumer sentiment, potentially softening the labor market and intensifying the debate over recession risks.

High-yield:

Week ended 4/4/2025

• Yields & Spreads¹
  
• Pricing & Returns¹
  
• Fund Flows²
  
• New Issue²
  
• Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²
  
• Total HY Defaults
  

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 4/4/2025

• Yields & Spreads¹
  
• Leveraged Loan Index¹
  
• Fund Flows²
  
• New Issue²
  
• Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹
  
• Total Loan Defaults
  

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Astra Acquisition ($1.0bn, 3/10/2025), Mitel Networks ($900mn, 3/9/2025), Rugs USA ($486mn, 3/3/2025), Aimbridge Hospitality ($1.1bn, 1/31/2025), Exela Intermediate LLC ($1.2bn, 1/15/2025), and City Brewing ($886mn, 1/2/2025).

CLOs:

Week ended 4/4/2025

• New U.S. CLO Issuance²
  
• New U.S. CLO Issuance²
  

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings
  

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

Diagram K: CLO Economics

Diagram L: Developed Country GovBond Yields (%)

Diagram M: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram N: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)x

Diagram O: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram Q: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram R: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram S: SOFR CURVE

Diagram T: CMBS Spreads

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index