Existing Home Sales

• Existing home sales rose 1.7% month-over-month to an annualized rate of 4.09 million in February, beating expectations for a decline, with the median price up 0.3% year over year to $398,000 
• Sales increased across most regions, reversing January's sharp 8.4% plunge driven by winter storms, though activity remains well below pre-pandemic levels 
• Lower mortgage rates and moderating home price growth pulled buyers back to market, though tight inventory could constrain the spring selling season

Consumer Price Index

• CPI rose 0.3% in February, holding the 12-month rate at 2.4% — in line with consensus — while core CPI held at 2.5% annually, indicating inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target but is not worsening 
• Shelter costs posted their smallest monthly gain since January 2021, while food prices continued to climb and used vehicles and auto insurance saw declines 
• The February report predates the oil price surge from the Iran war, meaning energy-driven inflationary pressure will likely show up in March data

PCE Index

• The PCE price index rose 2.8% year-over-year in January, while core PCE increased 3.1%, both above the Fed's 2% target and higher than the prior month's readings 
• Core PCE has now held well above target for several consecutive months, reinforcing the Fed's cautious stance on rate cuts heading into a period of heightened energy-price uncertainty from the Iran war 
• Markets currently expect the Fed to hold rates steady at its next several meetings, with traders now pricing the first cut no earlier than December 

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• U.S. Customs and Border Protection informed the Court of International Trade that development of the new ACE-based system called CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Process of Entries) to process IEEPA tariff refunds is between 40% and 80% complete across its four components, with the agency targeting mid-April for launch of the importer claim portal that will allow submission and processing of refund claims electronically
• The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative initiated new Section 301 investigations targeting structural excess capacity and forced-labor practices across dozens of trading partners, signaling the administration may use the investigations as a legal pathway to impose new tariff measures once the temporary Section 122 tariffs expire later this year
• Private litigation tied to the IEEPA tariff refunds is beginning to emerge, including class-action lawsuits against retailers and logistics providers seeking a share of any government refunds, highlighting growing disputes over how refunded duties will be distributed through supply chains and whether consumers have any legal claim to the funds

• The U.S. Court of International Trade lifted a stay on litigation challenging the Trump administration’s elimination of the de minimis exemption for imports from China and Hong Kong; the case could determine whether the administration had legal authority to suspend the statutory exemption and may temporarily restore duty free treatment for shipments under $800 from China until the congressionally mandated phase out of the Section 321 exemption takes effect in July 2027

Jobless Claims 

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 213,000 in the week ended March 6, down 1,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 212,000 down 4,000 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - decreased at 1.850 million in the week ended February 27. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.646 trillion in the week ended March 13, up $17.5 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.345 trillion, up $15.0 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.01 trillion in the week, down $9.5 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.90 trillion as of March 13, an increase of 7.4% from the previous year.
  
• Debt held by the public was $31.30 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.58 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.49 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.26% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 5.58% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.31% as of December 31, an increase of 0.87% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 2.4% in February year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in January
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in February, after rising 0.3% in January
• Core CPI increased 2.5% for the 12 months ending February

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.6% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.4% in February month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.9% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in February month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 1.1% in February after decreasing (3.3%) in January
• The energy commodities index fell (5.2%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index rose (0.1%) in February after increasing 1.4% in January
• The energy services index rose 6.3% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (5.6%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 6.2% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 4.8% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 10.9% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,122.57 per 40ft container for the week of March 13
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (10.4%) over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in February after increasing 0.2% in January
• The rent index increased 0.2% in February after increasing 0.2% in January
• The index for lodging away from home increased 3.8% in February after increasing 2.7% in January

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• Iran's newly installed Supreme Leader Mojtaba vowed to keep pressure on the Strait of Hormuz and continue attacks on Gulf Arab nations until U.S. and Israeli strikes cease 
• Defense Secretary Hegseth said last Tuesday would be the most intense day of U.S. strikes on Iran so far, while Pentagon officials noted Iran's daily missile output has fallen sharply since the start of the war, suggesting the conflict may be approaching an inflection point
• A coordinated IEA release of 400 million barrels from global reserves failed to push Brent crude back below $100 as the death toll across the region continues to climb 
• Analysts warn that shut-in wells could take weeks or months to restart even after the conflict ends, raising the risk of a prolonged global supply disruption

Europe

• European governments rushed to cap energy prices, with Germany limiting gas station price changes to once per day, Greece capping profit margins on fuel and groceries for three months, and Italy redirecting extra VAT revenue to cushion consumer costs 
• EU Economy Chief Valdis Dombrovskis warned EU finance ministers that a prolonged conflict could push eurozone inflation above 3% and shave up to 0.4 percentage points off the bloc's 2026 growth forecast 
• European natural gas benchmark TTF futures surged to a three-year high of nearly €64/MWh before pulling back to around €50 
• ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel warned that the bank will act "quickly and decisively" if higher energy costs feed into durable inflation, as markets briefly priced in two ECB rate hikes 

China

• China is better insulated than most major economies from the Hormuz disruption, with Iranian crude accounting for only about 13% of its total imports and large strategic reserves providing a meaningful buffer 
• Despite holding a 25-year, $400 billion strategic partnership with Iran, Beijing has limited its response to verbal calls for a ceasefire, prioritizing preservation of the U.S.-China trade truce over its commitments to Tehran 
• The U.S. launched sweeping Section 301 trade investigations targeting China, adding new friction to already-complicated relations ahead of the end-of-March Beijing summit 
• Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed he will meet Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Paris to lay the groundwork for the Trump-Xi summit, with deliverables expected to be limited to commercial deals like soybeans and Boeing aircraft

India

• Over 400,000 metric tons of Indian basmati rice are stranded at ports as the Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern shipping lanes, threatening roughly 75% of India's annual basmati rice exports

Hungary

• Hungarian authorities briefly detained seven Oschadbank employees and confiscated over $80 million in cash and gold from trucks en route to Ukraine, escalating a conflict between the two countries over oil deliveries

Canada

• Canada and India signed agreements to deepen ties in critical minerals, energy, and trade, aiming to reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States

North Korea

• According to South Korean intelligence, Kim Jong Un’s daughter Kim Ju Ae is increasingly positioned to succeed her father as Supreme Leader of North Korea. Until recently, she was the only child of Kim Jong Un to never be shown in public

Congo

• Eastern Congo is sliding toward mass hunger not from a lack of food, but because M23’s control around Goma has disrupted farming, blocked imports and aid routes, and driven prices sharply higher for civilians

Venezuela

• The U.S. issued a broad license allowing major global energy companies to resume and expand oil and gas investments in Venezuela following reforms to its hydrocarbon law, with revenues structured through U.S.-supervised channels

Japan

• Prime Minster Sanae Takaichi won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections, securing a two-thirds majority in the lower house

Cuba

• Cuba’s President Miguel Diaz-Canel said his government is willing to engage with the Trump administration. The announcement comes during the country’s worst crisis since the fall of the Soviet Union

Egypt

• The Rafah border between Egypt and Gaza reopened, allowing limited two-way traffic. Israel proposed allowing 150 Palestinians to leave and 50 to enter the checkpoint daily

Oil Prices

• WTI: $98.93 per barrel
• +8.83% WoW; +32.05% YTD; +46.17% YoY
• Brent: $103.50 per barrel
• +11.66% WoW; +31.76% YTD; +48.11% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.7 million bpd for the week ended March 6, down 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 553, up 2 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 443.1 million barrels, up 1.4% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 90.8% for the week, up from 89.2% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.324 million barrels per day, down 19.3% YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.63 per gallon in the week of March 13, up 17.9% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.47, up 13.6% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.36, up 12.8% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.21, up 15.3% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.39, up 10.2% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.83, up 14.0% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 3.7 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 249.5 million barrels, up 3.7% YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.89 million bpd, up 2.8% YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 9.241 million bpd, up 4.8% YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -1.3 million in the week of March 13
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 119.4 million barrels, up 4.0% YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.944 million bpd, up 7.2% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 4.065 million bpd in the week, up 1.4% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories decreased by 38 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 1,848 billion cubic feet, up 8.3% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 31bps to 7.32% and spreads widened 17bps to 350bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 8bps to 8.54% while spreads tightened 6 bps to 503bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 68bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 25bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 13bps to 4.27%. High yield spreads widened due to concerns over energy supply and inflation linked to the Middle East conflict, with the asset class seeing its largest weekly outflow since April 2025. Leveraged loan prices rose modestly, supported by limited new issuance volume and selective buying in the Software sector after recent repricing.

Week ended 03/13/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 03/13/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

Most recent defaults include: Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), and New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 03/13/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

‍

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index