Retail Sales

• Retail sales rose 0.6% in February, rebounding after weakness in prior months, driven partly by tax refunds and a return of auto buyers
• The economy faces new headwinds from the Iran conflict, which has pushed oil prices sharply higher and is expected to weigh on consumer spending in coming months 
• Analysts view the February data as a positive GDP signal for Q1, though the pre-conflict strength may not carry forward given the oil price shock 

ISM Manufacturing Index

• The ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.7% in March, its highest reading since August 2022, signaling expansion, but new orders slowed for the third consecutive month
• The Iran conflict has driven oil prices sharply higher, pushing a key price measure to a three-year high and injecting fresh uncertainty
• Employment in manufacturing contracted for the 30th straight month, with companies reluctant to replace retiring workers amid uncertainty over future demand, tariff policy, and the trajectory of the conflict

ADP Jobs

• The private sector of the U.S. economy added 62,000 jobs in March, according to ADP, exceeding economists’ average forecast of 39,000 
• Private-sector job growth increased for the second consecutive month, with healthcare accounting for the majority of new hires 
• The labor market remains stable with unemployment between 4.3% and 4.5%, but economists foresee potential layoffs

Jobless Claims 

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 202,000 in the week ended March 27, down 9,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 207,750 down 3000 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - increased at 1.841 million in the week ended March 20. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.675 trillion in the week ended April 3, up $18.2 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.384 trillion, up $17.2 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.00 trillion in the week, down $13.7 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $39.00 trillion as of April 3, an increase of 7.7% from the previous year.
  
• Debt held by the public was $31.41 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.58 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.44 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.11% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 5.42% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.49% as of December 31, an increase of 1.05% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 2.4% in February year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in January
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in February, after rising 0.3% in January
• Core CPI increased 2.5% for the 12 months ending February

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.6% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.4% in February month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.9% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in February month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 1.1% in February after decreasing (3.3%) in January
• The energy commodities index fell (5.2%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index rose (0.1%) in February after increasing 1.4% in January
• The energy services index rose 6.3% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (5.6%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 6.2% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 4.8% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 10.9% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,172.33 per 40ft container for the week of March 20
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (4.0%) over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in February after increasing 0.2% in January
• The rent index increased 0.2% in February after increasing 0.2% in January
• The index for lodging away from home increased 3.8% in February after increasing 2.7% in January

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• The UAE is lobbying for a UN Security Council resolution authorizing a coalition to forcibly reopen the Strait of Hormuz after suffering nearly 2,500 Iranian missile and drone strikes 
• Gulf states broadly want the war to continue until Iran is disabled or toppled, but fear any diplomatic settlement would give Tehran formal leverage over the waterway
• Trump claimed in a prime time address that military objectives would be completed "very shortly," but analysts note the Strait remains under Iranian control and Tehran has yet to capitulate
• Trump asked Vice President JD Vance to convey U.S. openness to a cease-fire with Iran, conditioned on the Strait of Hormuz’s fully reopening

Europe

• Eurozone inflation jumped to 2.5% in March and could average 3.5% for the full year if Hormuz disruptions persist through Q2, well above the ECB's 2% target 
• The ECB's next rate move is likely a hike, though timing remains uncertain as policymakers try to avoid overreacting to an energy shock that is already slowing growth 
• Trump has privately raised NATO withdrawal with advisers over allies' refusal to join the Iran campaign, though a congressional law requires a two-thirds Senate vote to actually exit 
• European leaders have hardened their stance, arguing they weren't consulted before the war began, even as U.S. forces continue relying on NATO bases across Europe for strike missions 

China

• China has restarted its island-building campaign after nearly a decade, constructing what could become its largest South China Sea base, with a potential runway, missile facilities, and an area capable of hosting navy vessels 
• Analysts say Beijing is exploiting Washington's distraction with Iran, and a base in the South China Sea would be strategically valuable in any Taiwan conflict
• China's private manufacturing PMI eased to 50.8 in March from a five-year high of 52.1, with cost and supply chain pressures intensifying as the Middle East conflict ripples through global supply chains 
• China is relatively insulated from the energy shock given its diversified energy mix and domestic capacity, but a prolonged Hormuz disruption would eventually filter through producer prices to consumers

New Zealand

• New Zealand plans to spend roughly $7 billion on its military, including enhanced strike capabilities and new helicopters, aiming to reverse military attrition by recruiting 2,500 personnel in the coming years

Venezuela

• A Colombian military C-130 carrying 128 people crashed shortly after takeoff in the southern jungle, killing 66, injuring dozens and prompting criticism over long-standing deficiencies in military aircraft and airport infrastructure

Cuba

• Cuba’s nationwide blackout – driven by an obsolete, oil-dependent power grid and worsened by U.S. oil restrictions – has crippled basic services, intensified economic collapse, and fueled growing social unrest, with no near-term fix in sight

India

• Over 400,000 metric tons of Indian basmati rice are stranded at ports as the Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern shipping lanes, threatening roughly 75% of India's annual basmati rice exports

Hungary

• Hungarian authorities briefly detained seven Oschadbank employees and confiscated over $80 million in cash and gold from trucks en route to Ukraine, escalating a conflict between the two countries over oil deliveries

Canada

• Canada and India signed agreements to deepen ties in critical minerals, energy, and trade, aiming to reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States

North Korea

• According to South Korean intelligence, Kim Jong Un’s daughter Kim Ju Ae is increasingly positioned to succeed her father as Supreme Leader of North Korea. Until recently, she was the only child of Kim Jong Un to never be shown in public

Congo

• Eastern Congo is sliding toward mass hunger not from a lack of food, but because M23’s control around Goma has disrupted farming, blocked imports and aid routes, and driven prices sharply higher for civilians

Japan

• Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections, securing a two-thirds majority in the lower house

Oil Prices

• WTI: $111.54 per barrel
• +11.94% WoW; +48.88% YTD; +55.54% YoY
• Brent: $109.03 per barrel
• (3.14%) WoW; +38.80% YTD; +55.45% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.7 million bpd for the week ended March 27, down 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 548, up 5 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 461.6 million barrels, up 4.4% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 92.1% for the week, down from 92.9% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.464 million barrels per day, down 4.3% YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.10 per gallon in the week of April 3, up 25.8% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.93, up 26.5% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.80, up 20.3% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.69, up 30.4% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.05, up 25.3% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.47, up 26.5% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 0.6 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 240.9 million barrels, up 2.1% YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.58 million bpd, up 7.1% YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.686 million bpd, up 3.1% YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -2.1 million in the week of April 3
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 117.8 million barrels, up 6.1% YoY
• Distillate production averaged 5.026 million bpd, up 7.9% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 4.039 million bpd in the week, up 0.8% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 36 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 1,865 billion cubic feet, up 1.9% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 7bps to 7.41% and spreads tightened 4bps to 349bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 3bps to 8.69% and spreads increased 7bps to 511bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 25bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were negative 6bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 12bps to 4.30%. High yield bond yields decreased supported by stronger domestic economic data, despite ongoing retail outflows. Leveraged loan spreads widened amid escalating Middle East uncertainty, with conflict contributing to increased inflation pressures.

Week ended 04/03/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 04/03/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

Most recent defaults include: Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), and New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 04/03/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index