Consumer Price Index

• Consumer prices rose just 0.1% in May, with annual inflation at 2.4% and core inflation steady at 2.8%, signaling minimal overall price pressures
• The Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term, but persistent low inflation and global uncertainty could prompt cuts later this year
• Tariff-related inflation remained limited, showing up mainly in appliances and home furnishings, while prices for cars, airfare, and clothing either declined or stayed flat

Producer Price Index

• Wholesale prices rose just 0.1% in May, with core producer prices also up a mild 0.1%, both coming in below estimates
• The data suggests businesses aren’t yet passing on higher costs to consumers, easing concerns about a near-term inflation spike
• Most price gains came from services, while prices for goods and raw materials – typically early indicators of inflation – remained subdued

Consumer Sentiment

• Consumer sentiment rose to 60.5 in early June, up 15.9% from May and beating forecasts, as optimism grew amid easing trade tensions
• Inflation expectations dropped sharply, with the 1-year outlook falling to 5.1% (down 1.5 points) and the 5-year view dipping to 4.1%, reflecting reduced fears over tariff-driven price hikes
• While sentiment improved, it remains below year-ago levels as consumers remain cautious about broader economic risks

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• U.S. and China agreed to a framework trade pact: U.S. maintains 55% tariff on Chinese imports, resumes Chinese student access to U.S Universities and China lifts rare-earth export restrictions—pending final Trump-Xi approval
• Treasury Secretary Bessent told Congress the July 8 tariff pause "could be extended" for 18 key partners negotiating in “good faith,” including the EU, Japan, and South Korea
• China reopened Chinese pork and poultry imports from 106 U.S. facilities as part of trade normalization post-framework
• U.S. and Japan held a sixth tariff negotiation round in Washington; Japan is seeking exemptions on a planned 24% auto tariff effective July and aiming for agreement ahead of a G7 summit meeting
• Asia–US West Coast spot rates fell from ~$6,000/FEU on June 1 to ~$3,100–$3,400/FEU as 27 extra loaders (~100,000 TEU) are scheduled to enter the lane in late June

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 248,000 in the week ended June 6, flat 0,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 240,250, up 5000 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – increased by 54,000 to 1.956 million in the week ended May 30. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserves assets totaled $6.677 trillion in the week ended June 13, up $4.3 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.212 trillion, down $0.8 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.16 trillion in the week, down $9.4 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $36.22 trillion as of June 13, an increase of 4.4% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $28.94 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.26 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $29.98 trillion as of March 31, 2025 an increase of 0.85% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 4.73% from the previous year

• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 120.81% as of March 31, an decrease of -0.02% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 2.4% in May year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.1% in May on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in April.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.1% in May, after rising 0.2% in April.
• Core CPI increased 2.8% for the 12 months ending May.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.3% in May from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in May month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.8% in May from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in May month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index decreased (2.4%) in May after decreasing (0.2%) in
• The energy commodities index fell (11.6%) over the last 12 months.
• The energy services index rose 0.8% in May after increasing 0.6% in April.
• The energy services index rose 6.8% over the last 12 months.
• The gasoline index fell (12.0%) over the last 12 months.
• The fuel oil index fell (8.6%) over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 4.5% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 15.3% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $3,543.20 per 40ft
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (24.9%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.3% in May after increasing 0.3% in April.
• The rent index increased 0.3% in May after increasing 0.4% in April.
• The index for lodging away from home increased 1.9% in May after increasing 2.0% in April.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 4.33%, flat 0.00% year to date.

Middle East

• Israel launched a large-scale air campaign killing top Iranian Revolutionary Guard leaders, including Major General Hossein Salami, and hitting nuclear, missile, and military sites to cripple Iran’s defense and political structure
• This “all-in” campaign, involving Mossad covert operations and multiple waves of airstrikes, aims to delay Iran’s nuclear progress and weaken its regional influence, with potential long-term impacts on Middle East stability
• Hamas named Ezzedin al-Haddad as its new Gaza leader after heavy losses, with him managing hostages and military operations
• Despite setbacks, Hamas remains strong underground and Haddad shows more willingness to negotiate than past leaders

Europe

• The EU proposes banning all transactions related to Nord Stream 1 and 2 and lowering the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45 per barrel
• The sanctions package also targets 77 shadow fleet vessels to curb Russia’s backdoor crude exports, pending unanimous approval from all EU states
• European nations like the UK, Germany, and France are cutting foreign aid between ~20-40% through 2026, compounding steep reductions already led by the U.S.
• Aid groups warn this will severely impact the poorest countries and threaten progress on global poverty and health

China

• China will issue six-month rare-earth export licenses to U.S. firms, restoring supply temporarily but keeping leverage as trade talks continue
• In exchange, the U.S. will ease some export controls on jet engines and ethane, while both sides work toward a broader deal by August
• China deployed both its Liaoning and Shandong aircraft carriers for the first time in the western Pacific, conducting drills east of Iwo Jima – hundreds of miles south of Japan
• Japan and Taiwan view the move as part of Beijing’s broader effort to project naval power beyond the first island chain and prepare for potential conflict over Taiwan

U.K.

• The U.K. will spend 15 billion pounds on its nuclear-warhead program and will build up to 12 nuclear-powered attack submarines as part of a decade-long defense strategy

Taiwan

• Taiwan is vetting civil servants for ties to Beijing in the midst of rising concern over China’s influence; authorities have expanded ID vetting to local governments, schools, and universities

South Africa

• At least 49 people have died in South Africa’s Eastern Cape province due to severe weather including landslides and flooding; hundreds of thousands are without power, infrastructure is damaged and families have been displaced in the nation’s poorest province

South Korea

• Lee Jae-myung, a left-leaning politician, won South Korea’s presidential vote. He advocates for more balanced ties with China and the U.S.

North Korea

• North Korea said it successfully refloated a new destroyer warship that capsized last month. The ship was meant to be the symbol of North Korea’s naval modernization effort

Canada

• Canada and the U.S. are negotiating a new economic and security pact to replace the current trade deal, with PM Mark Carney aiming to eliminate Trump-era tariffs, reduce reliance on the U.S., and strengthen ties with Europe and Asia amid escalating trade and defense tensions

Mexico

• Mexico is holding elections for nearly 2,700 judges—including Supreme Court justices—for the first time, raising concerns about judicial independence, low voter awareness, and the ruling Morena party consolidating control amid fears of criminal influence and weakened rule of law

France

• PSG’s Champions League win sparked mass celebrations in Paris that escalated into riots, resulting in over 500 arrests, 260 cars burned, 190+ injuries, and two deaths, prompting strong condemnation from French officials

Venezuela

• Venezuela released U.S. Air Force veteran Joseph St. Clair, arrested in October and deemed wrongfully detained, as it seeks to improve ties with the U.S. amid talks on extending oil licenses

Oil Prices

• WTI: $72.98 per barrel
  
• +13.01% WoW; (9.96%) YTD; (7.03%) YoY
• Brent: $74.23 per barrel
  
• +11.67% WoW; (10.95%) YTD; (10.13%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.4 million bpd for the week ended June 6, up 0.0 million
  bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 555, down 4 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 432.4 million barrels, down (5.9%) YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 94.3% for the week, up from 93.4%
  in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.346 million barrels per day, down (25.6%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.13 per gallon in the week of
  June 13, down (9.5%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.06, down (12.0%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.05, down (8.9%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.81, down (7.6%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.21, down (5.0%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.29, down (4.7%)
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 1.5 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 229.8 million barrels, down (1.6%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.72 million bpd, down (3.6%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 9.170 million bpd, up 1.4% YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 1.2 million in the week of June 13
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 108.9 million barrels, down (11.7%) YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 4.897 million bpd, down (2.7%) YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.376 million bpd in the week, down (7.5%)

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 109 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,707 billion cubic feet, down (9.0%) YoY.

High yield bond yields decreased 8bps to 7.37% and spreads decreased 6bps to 341bps. Leveraged loan yields remained unchanged at 8.26% and spreads increased 2bps to 468bps. WTD Leveraged loan returns were positive 7bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 27bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 4bps to 4.36%. HY spreads tightened amid strong weekly inflow, rising geopolitical tensions, and softer-than-expected inflation data. Leveraged prices were mixed as investors absorbed a seventh consecutive mild weekly inflow, mixed macro (benign inflation, weak claims), and the heaviest capital market activity in 3 months.

High-yield:

Week ended 06/13/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

‍

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 06/13/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Leveraged Loan Index¹

‍

Fund Flows²

‍

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total HY Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Everstream ($495mn, 5/28/2025), At Home ($1.6bn, 5/15/2025), and Aegis Toxicology ($164mn, 5/9/2025), Ascend Performance Materials ($1.0bn, 4/21/2025), Sunnova ($800mn, 4/1/2025), Astra Acquisition ($1.0bn, 3/10/2025), Mitel Networks ($900mn, 3/9/2025), and Rugs USA ($486mn, 3/3/2025).

CLOs:

Week ended 06/13/2025

• New U.S. CLO Issuance²

• New U.S. CLO Issuance²

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

• ‍

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

‍

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

‍

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

‍

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

‍

‍Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

‍

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

‍

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

‍

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

‍

Diagram R: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram S: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram T: SOFR CURVE

‍

‍

Diagram U: CMBS Spreads

‍

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

‍

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index

‍