Durable Goods Orders

• U.S. business investment has held up despite tariffs, with core capital-goods orders up 0.7% in November, while overall durable goods orders rose 5.3% month over month, reflecting strength in AI and robotics spend
• Continued tech spending helped push U.S. GDP to a surprisingly strong growth rate in 2025, even as manufacturing demand weakened
• Economists expect investment to remain firm in 2026, as tariff impacts fade and AI investments stay elevated

Housing Prices

• U.S. home prices rose 1.4% year over year in November, while inflation ran at 2.7%, implying a 1.3% decline in real home values
• Regional divergence remains pronounced, with Midwestern and Northeastern cities outperforming while many Sun Belt markets continue to see price declines
• Overall momentum is weak, with broadly flat to negative monthly price changes and affordability still constrained by high mortgage rates

Producer Price Index

• U.S. wholesale inflation picked up at year-end, with producer prices rising 0.5% in December and running at 3% year over year, suggesting inflation will stay above the Fed’s 2% target in early 2026
• Core producer prices also showed persistent pressure, reinforcing concerns that inflationary forces in the supply chain remain elevated
• Sticky wholesale inflation complicates the outlook for rate cuts under a new Fed chair, as easing policy too soon could risk reigniting price pressures

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• President Trump issued Jan. 29 an executive order establishing a process to impose additional tariffs on imports of goods from any country that directly or indirectly sells or otherwise provides any crude oil or petroleum products to Cuba, pushing 
• A new case at the U.S. Court of International Trade challenges how Section 232 steel and aluminum tariffs are calculated, arguing duties should apply only to the raw steel content and not the full value of the item; if successful, the case could create additional refund opportunities for importers and limit U.S. Customs’ ability to expand tariff valuation without formal rulemaking
• President Trump threatened a 50% tariff on Canadian-made aircraft sold in the U.S., escalating a trade dispute sparked by regulatory certification issues for U.S. jets in Canada
• The EU and India finalized a free trade agreement that will remove tariffs on ~96% of bilateral trade over time, boosting cross-border flows in chemicals, machinery, and other industrial goods

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 209,000 in the week ended January 23, down 1,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 206,250 up 2,250 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - decreased at 1.827 million in the week ended January 16. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.588 trillion in the week ended January 30, up $3.0 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.259 trillion, up $15.0 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.03 trillion in the week, down $8.4 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.57 trillion as of January 30, an increase of 6.5% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.90 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.67 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.10 trillion as of September 30, 2025, an increase of 2.01% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 5.38% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.03% as of September 30, an increase of 0.86% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer price index rose 2.7% in December year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in November.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in December, after rising 0.2% in November.
• Core CPI increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending December.

Food & Beverages

• The food at home index increased 2.4% in December from the same month a year earlier and increased 0.7% in December month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 4.1% in December from the same month a year earlier and increased 0.7% in December month over month.

Commodities

• The energy commodities index decreased (0.4%) in December after increasing 0.7% in November.
• The energy commodities index fell (3.0%) over the last 12 months.
• The energy services index rose 1.1% in December after increasing 0.1% in November.
• The energy services index rose 7.7% over the last 12 months.
• The gasoline index fell (3.4%) over the last 12 months.
• The fuel oil index rose 7.4% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 6.7% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 10.8% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased to $2,211.85 per 40ft container for the week of January 23.
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (35.8%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market

• The shelter index increased 0.4% in December after increasing 0.2% in November.
• The rent index increased 0.4% in December after increasing 0.2% in November.
• The index for lodging away from home increased 1.2% in December after decreasing (8.2%) in November.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s forces seized roughly 80% of northeast Syria, undermining the U.S.-backed Kurdish-led SDF and triggering debate in Washington over troop withdrawals
• U.S. officials warn that abandoning the Kurds could weaken counterterror efforts and create an opening for ISIS, complicating Trump’s Syria policy
• Middle Eastern governments are scrambling to broker talks between the U.S. and Iran, but mediation efforts have stalled as both sides harden positions and tensions escalate
• Trump has ramped up military pressure and threats against Iran, raising the risk of conflict as diplomacy fails to gain traction

Europe

• Europe is rapidly ramping up weapons production in response to Russian aggression and growing uncertainty over U.S. security guarantees, but remains years away from full military independence
• While defense spending and output have surged, Europe still relies heavily on the U.S. for key capabilities like stealth fighters, long-range missiles, and satellite intelligence
• The most likely scenario in Ukraine for 2026 is continued attritional war, with U.S.-led peace talks dragging on as neither Kyiv nor Moscow is willing to concede over core demands
• A breakthrough could come only if one side weakens materially – either Ukraine facing military exhaustion or Russia buckling under economic strain – forcing more serious negotiations

China

• Xi Jinping has launched a sweeping purge of China’s military leadership, with dozens of senior officers removed or investigated, exposing limits in his drive to modernize the armed forces and enforce loyalty
• The shake-up risks disrupting military readiness and defense-industry output even as Beijing maintains pressure around Taiwan and accelerates long-term modernization plans
• 13 out of 20 Chinese provinces are dialing back 2026 growth targets, raising expectations that Beijing will lower its national GDP goal after three years of targeting around 5% growth
• Slowing domestic momentum – especially a sharp drop in fixed-asset investment and weak consumption – is increasing pressure for more pragmatic targets and potentially stronger stimulus

Canada

• President Donald Trump threatened to ground Canadian-made aircrafts and impose tariffs on Canadian imports after Canada delayed certification of U.S.-made Gulfstream jets, escalating trade tensions between Washington and Ottawa

Venezuela

• Venezuela’s interim government introduced a bill to loosen state control over its oil industry, aiming to attract U.S. energy companies. The proposed bill maintains a 30% royalty, with a possible reduction to 15% in some joint ventures, and allows for independent arbitration

Taiwan

• Taiwan pledged $250 billion to stand up semiconductor factories in the United States. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15%

Israel

• Israel formally recognized Somaliland to gain intelligence cooperation and secure strategic Red Sea shipping lanes near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, marking a bold diplomatic move that expands its influence into the Horn of Africa despite international condemnation

Russia

• Russia escalated tensions with the U.S. by sending a submarine and additional naval assets to escort an empty oil tanker formerly known as the Bella 1—now re-registered under a Russian flag—after the U.S. Coast Guard pursued the vessel for allegedly transporting sanctioned illicit oil

Thailand

• Thailand and Cambodia agreed to an immediate cease-fire to halt weeks of deadly border clashes that have killed at least 22 civilians

Nigeria

• The U.S. carried out missile strikes on Christmas Day against two alleged Islamic State camps in Nigeria, firing more than a dozen missiles from a Navy warship and killing multiple militants, according to U.S. officials

Oil Prices

• WTI: $65.21 per barrel
• +6.78% WoW; (17.12%) YTD; (10.20%) YoY
• Brent: $70.69 per barrel
• +7.30% WoW; (14.08%) YTD; (8.04%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.7 million bpd for the week ended January 23, down 0.1 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 546, up 2 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 423.8 million barrels, down (0.0%) YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 90.9% for the week, down from 93.3% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.447 million barrels per day, down (18.4%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices were $2.87 per gallon in the week of January 30, down (7.5%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast were $2.92, down (8.4%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest were $2.78, down (8.3%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast were $2.55, down (8.6%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region were $2.67, down (12.2%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast were $3.84, down (4.4%) YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 0.2 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories totaled 257.2 million barrels, up 2.4% YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.57 million bpd, up 4.5% YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline was 8.757 million bpd, up 5.2% YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 0.3 million in the week of January 30.
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 132.9 million barrels, up 12.2% YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 4.819 million bpd, up 5.9% YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 4.069 million bpd in the week, down (11.5%) YoY.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories decreased by 242 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 2,823 billion cubic feet, up 17.8% YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 14bps to 6.71% and spreads widened 18bps to 300bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 15bps to 8.12% while spreads increased 22bps to 473bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 19bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were negative 50bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 2bps to 4.23%. High yield bond spreads moved wider from post-GFC tights amid the Fed decision, earnings updates, sector dispersion, a lighter primary calendar, and Fed Chair nomination headlines. Leveraged loan prices declined as accelerating losses in the Software subsector, combined with a heavy supply and repricing backdrop, weighed on the market.

Week ended 01/30/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 01/30/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

• Most recent defaults include: Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025), Packers Sanitation Services ($1.2bn, 11/5/2025), Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), and Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25).

CLOs: 

Week ended 01/30/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

ZCGC Real Estate:

• Homebuyers are backing out of deals at a record pace.
• In December, 16.3 percent of home purchase contracts were canceled, the highest rate for this month on record based on data going back to 2017. More than 40,000 pending U.S. home sales fell out of contract, according to Redfin.
• For comparison, cancellation rates were 14.9 percent in December 2024 and 14.7 percent in December 2023.
• Atlanta posted the highest cancellation rate at 22.5 percent, followed by Jacksonville and San Antonio at 20.6 percent.
• Persistently high housing costs and rising inventory are making buyers more selective and more willing to walk away, increasing pressure across the housing market.

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index