U.S. Retail Sales

• Retail sales increased 0.2% in September, the slowest pace in four months, reflecting a pause after unusually strong June – August spending
• The data was released six weeks late due to the government shutdown, offering only a lagged read on consumer activity
• Economists expect a soft holiday season as slower hiring and persistent inflation weigh on consumer confidence

Consumer Confidence

• Consumer confidence declined in November to a seven-month low of 88.7, down from 95.5 in October, nearing COVID-19 crisis levels
• The expectations index, reflecting future economic outlook, also fell to a seven-month low of 63.2 from 71.8, its second lowest in 12 years
• Economists note a K-shaped economy where high-income consumers are thriving, while middle and lower-income Americans face financial stress

Pending Home Sales

• Pending home sales increased 1.9% in October, though contract activity remained 0.4% lower year over year
• The Northeast, Midwest, and South posted monthly gains, while the West declined amid persistent affordability pressures
• NAR’s Confidence Index shows softening buyer and seller traffic expectations, suggesting limited momentum heading into winter

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• Trump stated China will accelerate U.S. agricultural purchases following his hour-long phone call with Xi on Monday, telling reporters the Chinese leader “more or less agreed” to buy more soybeans and farm goods; the two also discussed implementing “general licenses” for China’s rare-earth and critical-mineral exports to the U.S., a key component of last month’s tentative trade truce
• The EU Council approved the first regulatory package to remove duties on U.S. industrial and select agricultural imports agreed upon in the July US–EU trade deal, with European Parliament approval and a subsequent Commission update to the Common External Tariff still required; removal of duties on the U.S. goods are not expected until March or April 2026
• Ocean carriers saw a sharp profitability drop in Q3 as capacity growth outpaced demand; revenues fell 22% YoY and profit dropped from $17B to $5B. Analysts now expect the industry’s multi-year profit run to end in 2026, with potential losses of ~$10B as vessel capacity is expected to expand 4–6% next year against only modest demand growth

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 216,000 in the week ended November 21, down 6,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 223,750, down 1,000 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - increased at 1.960 millon in the week ended November 14. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.552 trillion in the week ended November 28, down $2.9 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.191 trillion, down $1.1 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.06 trillion in the week, down $7.1 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.34 trillion as of November 28, an increase of 6.2% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.72 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.47 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $30.49 trillion as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 1.48% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 4.59% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 118.78% as of June 30, a decrease of -0.72% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.0% in September year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in August.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in September, after rising 0.3% in August.
• Core CPI increased 3.0% for the 12 months ending September.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in September month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.1% in September month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 3.8% in September after increasing 1.7% in August
• The energy commodities index fell (0.4%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.8%) in September after decreasing (0.3%) in August
• The energy services index rose 6.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (0.5%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index fell 4.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 5.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 11.7% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $1,851.84 per 40ft container for the week of November 21
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (45.7%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in September after increasing 0.4% in August
• The rent index increased 0.2% in September after increasing 0.4% in August
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (1.4%) in September after increasing 0.3% in August.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.88% , down (0.45%) year to date.

Middle East

• An Israeli operation in southern Syria triggered a deadly exchange of fire that left 13 Syrians dead and six Israeli soldiers wounded, underscoring renewed volatility along the border
• Israel maintains a 155-square-mile security buffer in southern Syria following the Assad regime’s collapse, and talks toward a U.S.-supported security framework have made limited progress as both sides navigate post-war border arrangements
• Iran has routed hundreds of millions of dollars to Hezbollah over the past year through money exchanges and businesses in Dubai, while the Quds Force has transferred more than $1 billion to the group since January, according to U.S. officials
• The U.S. and U.A.E. are working to curb these financing routes, but Hezbollah’s ongoing need to rebuild after last year’s war and its refusal to disarm under the cease-fire continue to strain efforts to enforce security commitments

Europe

• Two Russia-linked shadow-fleet tankers, the Kairos and Virat, were damaged by explosions off Turkey’s Black Sea coast; Turkish officials said early indications point to an external impact, though the cause remains unconfirmed
• The vessels, both sanctioned for transporting Russian oil, were not carrying cargo; the incidents add to a series of unexplained blasts involving Russia-affiliated ships amid ongoing Black Sea security tensions
• Andriy Yermak, Ukraine’s chief of staff and top negotiator, resigned after anticorruption investigators searched his home in a probe involving alleged kickbacks at state energy firm Energoatom
• His departure marks Ukraine’s biggest government shake-up since the war began, removing Zelensky’s lead negotiator at a moment when Russia is advancing and the U.S. is pressing Kyiv to consider a contested peace proposal

China

• Chinese leader Xi Jinping initiated a rare call with President Trump, urging the U.S. to reaffirm its “One China” position as tensions with Japan rise over Taiwan and Tokyo signals it would respond to any Chinese move against the island
• Trump shifted the discussion to Ukraine peace talks and accepted Xi’s invitation to visit Beijing in April as both sides seek to stabilize bilateral ties
• China Vanke, one of China’s largest developers and one of the few yet to default, asked to delay repayment of a ¥2 billion onshore bond due Dec. 15, triggering >30% drops in some of its local bonds, trading halts in Shenzhen, and a selloff in Chinese property stocks
• S&P Global Ratings cut Vanke to CCC from B-, citing unsustainable financial commitments and a lingering liquidity crunch, reinforcing concerns about continued stress and contagion risks in China’s property sector

Venezuela 

• President Trump declared the airspace “above and surrounding Venezuela” to be effectively closed and warned Nicolás Maduro that Washington could consider the use of force if he doesn’t step down, underscoring a sharp escalation in U.S.–Venezuela tensions

Israel

• Israel asked the International Criminal Court to nullify an arrest warrant against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because of sexual assault allegations facing the Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, which Israel claims impacted Khan’s decision to seek the warrant

Argentina

• A planned $20 billion bailout for Argentina from U.S. banks was shelved as they shift to a smaller, short-term loan package. Banks are now considering a $5 billion solution to help Argentina meet a $4 billion debt payment in January

UK

• U.K. markets fell sharply after reports that the Labour government may drop planned income-tax hikes, raising investor concerns about fiscal credibility and a growing budget shortfall ahead of the Nov. 26 budget

Tanzania

• Tanzania’s government, led by President Samia Suluhu Hassan, crushed Gen Z–driven protests over a disputed election and rising living costs with lethal force—opposition groups

Sudan

• Sudan’s civil war has taken a brutal turn in Darfur, where the Rapid Support Forces – an Arab-led militia backed by the U.A.E. and armed with Chinese drones – are carrying out mass killings and executions of civilians in El Fasher, prompting warnings of a potential genocide

France

• French police arrested suspects in the Louvre Museum heist, including one attempting to flee France from Charles de Gaulle Airport. Four thieves used a truck-mounted lift and angle grinders to steal eight pieces of jewelry valued at $102 million USD

India

• After President Trump claimed that India agreed to stop buying Russian oil, New Delhi issued a carefully worded response—neither confirming nor directly denying the statement—to avoid jeopardizing ongoing trade talks with Washington. India emphasized its efforts to diversify energy sources and expand U.S. imports, while analysts noted that reducing reliance on Russian crude, which supplies about one-third of India’s oil, would be difficult and costly in the near term

Oil Prices

• WTI: $58.55 per barrel
• +0.84% WoW; (19.05%) YTD; (14.80%) YoY
• Brent: $63.20 per barrel
• +1.02% WoW; (16.18%) YTD; (13.22%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.8 million bpd for the week ended November 21, down 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 544, down 10 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 426.9 million barrels, up 0.8% YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 92.3% for the week, up from 90.0% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.950 million barrels per day, down 11.7% YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices were $3.02 per gallon in the week of November 28, down (1.1%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast were $3.10, down (0.7%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest were $2.94, down (0.1%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast were $2.74, up 0.4% YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region were $3.00, up 1.7% YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast were $4.20, up 4.7% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 2.5 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories totaled 209.9 million barrels, down (2.2%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.56 million bpd, up 0.6% YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline was 8.726 million bpd, down (0.1%) YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 1.1 million in the week of November 28
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 112.2 million barrels, down (5.0%) YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.998 million bpd, down (6.0%) YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.362 million bpd in the week, down (1.1%) YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories decreased by 11 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,935 billion cubic feet, down (0.1%) YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 36bps to 6.78% and spreads decreased 26bps to 325bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 10bp to 7.85% and spreads remained unchanged at 463bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 72bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 12bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 7bps to 3.99%. High yield and leveraged loan spreads rallied this week, supported by a broad risk-on tone and rising expectations of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting. 

Week ended 11/28/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 11/28/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25), First Brands ($4.4bn, 9/29/25), Spirit Airlines ($852mn, 8/29/25), ModivCare ($1.1bn, 8/20/25), Anastasia Beverly Hills ($606mn, 8/11/25), Claire’s Stores ($506mn, 8/6/25), Maverick Gaming ($215mn, 7/17/25), and Del Monte Foods ($864mn, 7/2/25).

CLOs:

Week ended 11/28/2025

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

‍

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

‍Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram R: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

ZCGC Real Estate

New House Prices have dropped below Existing Homes for the first time in history

• The chart shows the new home premium, the percentage difference between new build prices and resale prices, sliding steadily from 2015 through 2025 and finally turning negative this year. The driver is straightforward: existing home supply collapsed because of the mortgage rate lock in effect, while builders remained the only consistent source of available inventory.
• Most existing homeowners hold sub four percent mortgages and have no economic incentive to sell, which keeps resale prices sticky and listings extremely limited. Builders, by contrast, must maintain sales velocity to manage carrying costs. They responded by cutting prices and using mortgage rate buydowns to reach monthly payment targets. This brought effective new home prices down even as resale prices stayed elevated.
• The key takeaway: this inversion reflects a structural imbalance between a frozen resale market and an incentivized new home pipeline. Builders have become the de facto price setters because they are the only sellers with flexibility. The negative premium signals how dependent current transaction volume is on builder incentives rather than on true affordability improvement.

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index