CPI

• Consumer prices surged 0.9% in March, pushing the annual rate to 3.3% — the highest since April 2024 — as gasoline soared 21.2% and accounted for nearly three-quarters of the headline increase
• Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose just 0.2% monthly and 2.6% annually, both below forecast, suggesting underlying inflation remains relatively contained 
• A ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has since moderated energy prices in April, giving the Fed room to look past the March spike and focus on the longer-term inflation trajectory 

PCE Index

• The Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, rose 0.4% for a third consecutive month in February, keeping the annual rate at 2.8% — well above the Fed's 2% target
• The Iran war has since pushed inflation even higher through spiking oil prices, further reducing the likelihood of any Fed rate cuts in the near term
• Core PCE also rose 0.4% monthly, with its annual rate sitting at 3%, highlighting that price pressures were deeply entrenched even before recent geopolitical disruptions

ISM Services

• U.S. services sector growth slowed in March, with the ISM PMI falling to 54.0, below economist forecasts
• Input prices surged to their highest level since October 2022, driven by rising fuel costs, tariffs, and supply chain disruptions
• Uncertainty from the conflict has significantly reduced expectations for a Fed rate cut this year, with the central bank holding rates steady in the 3.50%–3.75% range

Jobless Claims 

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 219,000 in the week ended April 3, up 16,000 from the prior week
• The four-week moving average was 209,500, up 1,500 from the prior week
• Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – decreased at 1.794 million in the week ended March 27. This figure is reported with a one-week lag

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.694 trillion in the week ended April 10, up $18.5 billion from the prior week
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.400 trillion, up $15.6 billion from the prior week
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.00 trillion in the week, down $9.8 billion from the prior week

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.94 trillion as of April 10, an increase of 7.5% from the previous year
• Debt held by the public was $31.36 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.63 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.44 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.11% from the previous quarter, & an increase of 5.42% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.49% as of December 31, an increase of 1.05% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.3% in March year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.9% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.3% in February
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in March, after rising 0.2% in February
• Core CPI increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending March

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.0% in March from the same month a year earlier, and decreased -0.2% in March month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.8% in March from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.2% in March month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 21.3% in March after increasing 1.1% in February
• The energy commodities index rose 19.4% over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.2%) in March after decreasing (0.1%) in February
• The energy services index rose 5.0% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index rose 18.9% over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 44.2% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 4.6% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 6.4% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,308.78 per 40 ft container for the week of April 10
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has increased by 1.9% over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.3% in March after increasing 0.2% in February
• The rent index increased 0.3% in March after increasing 0.2% in February
• The index for lodging away from home increased 4.6% in March after increasing 3.8% in February
  

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• Iran is entering talks with the U.S. in Islamabad holding significant leverage, as its control of the Strait of Hormuz continues to choke global energy supplies despite the ceasefire 
• Tehran may be betting Trump is desperate enough to end the war that he'll accept a bad deal, though analysts warn Iran risks overplaying its hand
• Trump pressured Netanyahu to scale back attacks in Lebanon, fearing the escalating conflict could derail Saturday's U.S.-Iran talks in Islamabad
• Despite agreeing to limit strikes, Netanyahu declared there is no ceasefire in Lebanon, as direct Israel-Lebanon negotiations are tentatively scheduled for next week

Europe

• Britain exposed a monthlong covert Russian operation in the North Atlantic, tracking three submarines — one used as a decoy — lurking over critical undersea pipelines and cables 
• The incident is part of a broader pattern of Russian and Chinese hybrid warfare targeting Western underwater infrastructure, prompting NATO to launch dedicated patrol operations in the Baltic and Arctic 
• German industrial production unexpectedly fell 0.3% in February, missing forecasts of a 0.5% gain, driven by declines in construction, electronics, and pharmaceuticals 
• The war's energy price shock is expected to worsen conditions ahead, with the ECB now anticipated to hike rates at least twice this year 

China

• Xi Jinping hosted Taiwan's main opposition leader Cheng Li-wun in Beijing, using the meeting to portray China as a peacemaker and pressure Trump to ease arms sales ahead of their mid-May summit 
• The visit advances Beijing's strategy of elevating the KMT as a preferred partner while sidelining Taiwan's ruling party, with Xi eyeing the island's 2028 presidential election
• China nudged Tehran toward the ceasefire to earn diplomatic capital with Trump ahead of their May summit, where Xi hopes to trade geopolitical favors for tariff relief and a softer U.S. stance on Taiwan 
• Analysts describe Beijing's role as "theatrical diplomacy" — claiming credit for stability without incurring real risk, underscored by China blocking a U.N. resolution that would have physically reopened the Strait of Hormuz

Japan

• Japan will release an additional 20 days' worth of oil reserves in early May to stabilize energy prices, as the country relies on the Middle East for over 90% of its crude imports and the Strait of Hormuz remains largely blocked

New Zealand

• New Zealand plans to spend roughly $7 billion on its military, including enhanced strike capabilities and new helicopters, aiming to reverse military attrition by recruiting 2,500 personnel in the coming years

Venezuela

• A Colombian military C-130 carrying 128 people crashed shortly after takeoff in the southern jungle, killing 66, injuring dozens and prompting criticism over long-standing deficiencies in military aircraft and airport infrastructure

Cuba

• Cuba’s nationwide blackout – driven by an obsolete, oil-dependent power grid and worsened by U.S. oil restrictions – has crippled basic services, intensified economic collapse, and fueled growing social unrest, with no near-term fix in sight

India

• Over 400,000 metric tons of Indian basmati rice are stranded at ports as the Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern shipping lanes, threatening roughly 75% of India's annual basmati rice exports

Hungary

• Hungarian authorities briefly detained seven Oschadbank employees and confiscated over $80 million in cash and gold from trucks en route to Ukraine, escalating a conflict between the two countries over oil deliveries

Canada

• Canada and India signed agreements to deepen ties in critical minerals, energy, and trade, aiming to reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States

North Korea

• According to South Korean intelligence, Kim Jong Un’s daughter Kim Ju Ae is increasingly positioned to succeed her father as Supreme Leader of North Korea. Until recently, she was the only child of Kim Jong Un to never be shown in public

Congo

• Eastern Congo is sliding toward mass hunger not from a lack of food, but because M23’s control around Goma has disrupted farming, blocked imports and aid routes, and driven prices sharply higher for civilians

Oil Prices

• WTI: $96.57 per barrel
• (13.42%) WoW; +28.90% YTD; +54.88% YoY
• Brent: $94.39 per barrel
• (13.43%) WoW; +20.17% YTD; +49.04% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.6 million bpd for the week ended April 3, down 0.1 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 545, down 3 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 464.7 million barrels, up 4.9% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 92.0% for the week, down from 92.1% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.454 million barrels per day, down 5.4% YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $4.15 per gallon in the week of April 10, up 29.9% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $4.11, up 28.9% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.86, up 21.2% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.88, up 32.1% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $4.03, up 22.5% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.53, up 24.0% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 1.6 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 239.3 million barrels, up 2.2% YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.37 million bpd, down (0.5%) YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.564 million bpd, up 1.2% YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -3.1 million in the week of April 10
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 114.7 million barrels, up 5.0% YoY
• Distillate production averaged 5.035 million bpd, up 7.4% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 4.060 million bpd in the week, up 5.2% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 50 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 1,911 billion cubic feet, up 3.5% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 32bps to 7.09% and spreads tightened 26bps to 323bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 12bps to 8.59% and spreads decreased 10bps to 504bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 102bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 39bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 3bps to 4.28%. High yield bonds and leveraged loans yields tightened on the back of easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Week ended 04/10/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 04/10/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

• Most recent defaults include: Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), and New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 04/10/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

‍

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index