GDP

• U.S. GDP was revised up to a 4.4% annualized pace in Q3 2025, the strongest growth in two years and above the prior 4.3% estimate 
• Consumer spending increased by 3.5% in the third quarter, and corporate profits rose 4.5% before taxes
• The economy is on track for its fifth consecutive year of above-average growth, potentially exceeding 2% in 2025

Pending Home Sales

• Pending home sales fell 9.3% in December, dropping to a five-month low and sharply missing expectations for a modest increase
• Contracts declined across all regions and were down 3.0% year over year, as labor-market concerns and a lack of entry-level homes weighed on buyer demand despite lower mortgage rates
• Historically low inventory of existing homes remains a key constraint, as homeowners with sub-5% mortgage rates have little incentive to sell, dampening buyer activity

U.S. Services Index

• Economic growth cooled in early 2026, with S&P Global’s services index essentially flat at 52.8 and manufacturing steady at 51.9, both near recent lows
• High tariffs, rising costs and softer demand continue to weigh on activity, limiting gains in new orders and keeping overall momentum subdued
• Hiring barely increased in January, as businesses remained cautious amid tariff-driven inflation concerns and lingering political uncertainty

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• President Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Canadian imports if Canada proceeds with a trade agreement with China
• The U.S. Bureau of Industry and Security slightly relaxed its stance on exports of certain AI and advanced semiconductors to China, including Nvidia’s H200 and similar or less advanced chips, by issuing a final rule that shifts export licensing from automatic denial to case by case review beginning January 15th
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent signaled a potential rollback of the additional 25% tariffs imposed on Indian goods after Indian refinery imports of Russia oil fell to a two year low in December
• Research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy examining approximately $4 trillion in U.S. imports between early 2024 and late 2025 concludes that foreign suppliers absorbed only a small fraction of U.S. tariff costs, roughly 4%, with the remaining burden paid for by  U.S. importers

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 200,000 in the week ended January 16, up 1,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 201,500 down 3,750 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - decreased at 1.849 million in the week ended January 9. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.585 trillion in the week ended January 23, up $2.9 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.244 trillion, up $1.9 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.04 trillion in the week, down $1.0 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.49 trillion as of January 23, an increase of 6.3% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.84 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.67 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.10 trillion as of September 30, 2025, an increase of 2.00% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 5.37% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.04% as of September 30, an increase of 0.87% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer price index rose 2.7% in December year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in November.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in December, after rising 0.2% in November.
• Core CPI increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending December.

Food & Beverages

• The food at home index increased 2.4% in December from the same month a year earlier and increased 0.7% in December month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 4.1% in December from the same month a year earlier and increased 0.7% in December month over month.

Commodities

• The energy commodities index decreased (0.4%) in December after increasing 0.7% in November.
• The energy commodities index fell (3.0%) over the last 12 months.
• The energy services index rose 1.1% in December after increasing 0.1% in November.
• The energy services index rose 7.7% over the last 12 months.
• The gasoline index fell (3.4%) over the last 12 months.
• The fuel oil index rose 7.4% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 6.7% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 10.8% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased to $2,211.85 per 40ft container for the week of January 23.
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (35.8%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market

• The shelter index increased 0.4% in December after increasing 0.2% in November.
• The rent index increased 0.4% in December after increasing 0.2% in November.
• The index for lodging away from home increased 1.2% in December after decreasing (8.2%) in November.

‍Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• The U.S. is weighing a full withdrawal of roughly 1,000 troops from Syria after the collapse of the American-backed Kurdish-led militia
• As Syrian government forces advanced, the U.S. began transferring about 7,000 of roughly 9,000 ISIS detainees from northeast Syria to Iraq, removing one of the main rationales for maintaining a U.S. troop presence
• U.S. officials are weighing a range of military and nonmilitary options as protests in Iran face a violent crackdown, but analysts say limited strikes are unlikely to meaningfully shift the balance in favor of largely unarmed demonstrators
• The U.S. is reinforcing its Middle East posture by deploying an aircraft carrier strike group, additional fighter jets, and air-defense systems, expanding its ability to conduct strikes if ordered

Europe

• French naval forces seized a tanker linked to Russia’s sanctions-evading “shadow fleet” in the Mediterranean, marking a tougher European approach to physically disrupting oil shipments that fund Moscow’s war effort
• The seizure signals a shift from relying mainly on financial sanctions toward direct maritime enforcement, with European navies now physically boarding and diverting ships suspected of carrying sanctioned Russian oil
• President Trump announced a “framework for a future deal” on Greenland, retracting threats of force and tariffs after meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte
• European officials indicate the framework may involve stationing forces in Greenland and American first refusal on mineral investments, but say no written agreement exists

China

• China placed its top active-duty general, Zhang Youxia, under investigation, marking the most senior military purge since the fallout from the 1989 Tiananmen protests
• The move escalates a sweeping crackdown on corruption and loyalty within the armed forces, raising questions about short-term military readiness amid efforts to modernize and prepare for potential conflict, including over Taiwan
• China’s population shrank for a fourth straight year in 2025 as births fell to a record low of 7.9 million, the fewest since records began in 1949
• The deepening demographic decline reflects decades of the one-child policy and limited immigration, posing long-term risks to growth despite government efforts to encourage higher birthrates

Venezuela

• Venezuela’s interim government introduced a bill to loosen state control over its oil industry, aiming to attract U.S. energy companies. The proposed bill maintains a 30% royalty, with a possible reduction to 15% in some joint ventures, and allows for independent arbitration

Taiwan

• Taiwan pledged $250 billion to stand up semiconductor factories in the United States. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15%

Israel

• Israel formally recognized Somaliland to gain intelligence cooperation and secure strategic Red Sea shipping lanes near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, marking a bold diplomatic move that expands its influence into the Horn of Africa despite international condemnation

Russia

• Russia escalated tensions with the U.S. by sending a submarine and additional naval assets to escort an empty oil tanker formerly known as the Bella 1—now re-registered under a Russian flag—after the U.S. Coast Guard pursued the vessel for allegedly transporting sanctioned illicit oil

Thailand

• Thailand and Cambodia agreed to an immediate cease-fire to halt weeks of deadly border clashes that have killed at least 22 civilians

Nigeria

• The U.S. carried out missile strikes on Christmas Day against two alleged Islamic State camps in Nigeria, firing more than a dozen missiles from a Navy warship and killing multiple militants, according to U.S. officials

Canada

• British Columbia’s Supreme Court ruled that a group of indigenous tribes held the right to about 730 acres of privately held land. The ruling may open the doors for other indigenous groups to press their claims, causing uncertainty in the real estate market

Oil Prices

• WTI: $61.32 per barrel
• +3.16% WoW; (17.12%) YTD; (18.72%) YoY
• Brent: $66.19 per barrel
• +3.21% WoW; (14.08%) YTD; (15.46%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.7 million bpd for the week ended January 16, down 0.1 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 544, up 1 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 426.0 million barrels, up 2.6% YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 93.3% for the week, down from 95.3% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 7.092 million barrels per day, down (0.0%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices were $2.86 per gallon in the week of January 23, down (8.5%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast were $2.88, down (9.4%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest were $2.73, down (10.8%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast were $2.50, down (10.4%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region were $2.63, down (13.4%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast were $3.79, down (5.4%) YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 6.0 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories totaled 257.0 million barrels, up 3.3% YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 8.78 million bpd, down (4.5%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline was 7.834 million bpd, down (5.6%) YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 3.3 million in the week of January 23.
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 132.6 million barrels, up 7.0% YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 5.087 million bpd, up 7.4% YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.524 million bpd in the week, down (21.8%) YoY.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories decreased by 120 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,065 billion cubic feet, up 19.2% YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 3bps to 6.57% and spreads tightened 13bps to 283bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 18bps to 7.97% and spreads were up 5bps to 451bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 23bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were negative 1bp. 10yr treasury yields increased 9bps to 4.25%. High yield bond spreads tightened to post-GFC lows on strong early earnings, upward-revised U.S. growth expectations, resilient consumer spending, and easing geopolitical risks. Leveraged loan prices edged modestly lower as heavy January issuance and early-week geopolitical headlines outweighed supportive macro conditions and expectations for a Fed pause.

Week ended 01/23/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 01/23/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

• Most recent defaults include: Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025), Packers Sanitation Services ($1.2bn, 11/5/2025), Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25), and First Brands ($4.4bn, 9/29/25).

CLOs: 

Week ended 01/23/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

‍

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index