U.S. News

• Existing Home Sales

• • • Existing home sales fell 5.9% in March, the biggest monthly drop since November 2022, dashing hopes for a spring turnaround
    • High home prices and mortgage rates are deterring buyers, potentially leading to a third year of weak sales
    • Home prices rose nationally, but some markets in Texas and Florida are seeing price declines due to rising inventories

• Consumer Sentiment

• • • Consumer sentiment fell to 52.2 in April, from 57 in March, according to the University of Michigan
    • Consumers expect prices to surge 6.5% over the next year, the highest reading since 1981
    • Concerns about higher prices and a weaker labor market suggest fears of stagflation

• Durable Goods

• • • Total orders for durable goods were 9.2% higher in March than in February, the third consecutive monthly increase
    • This marked a substantial jump from the 0.9% rise of February, and the just 1.6% increase expected by economists
    • The increase was driven by a surge in the commercial-aircraft business, as companies got orders in ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcements at the start of April

• U.S. Tariff & Trade

• • • President Trump declared maintaining high tariffs for another year would represent a “total victory,” even as reports indicate the administration is weighing a plan to reduce the current 145 percent tariff on Chinese goods to a tiered system ranging between 50 and 65 percent, with higher rates reserved for critical imports and lower rates for less sensitive items
    • China has moved to exempt certain U.S. imports from its 125 percent retaliatory tariffs and is reviewing other key goods that may need to be levy-free, signaling growing concerns about the broader economic fallout from the trade war
    • The Bureau of Industry and Security is now accepting public input on a new Section 232 investigation targeting medium- and heavy-duty trucks, along with parts and derivative products — a move that could lead to new tariffs similar to those recently imposed on passenger vehicles
    • In a sign of mounting pressure on the logistics sector, Moody’s has downgraded its 2025 outlook for U.S. ports from stable to negative, citing expected declines in trade volumes between 7 and 12 percent as rising import costs weigh heavily on consumption and supply chains

  Target Country	Tariffs	Goods Targeted	Effective Date	Tariff %
  China	Sec 301 China Origin Tariffs	Most goods	7/16/2018	Most CN goods have total tariffs ranging from 145% to 170%, with select goods facing tariffs as high as 245%
  	4 Year Review of Sec 301	Select goods such as electric vehicles, batteries, syringes, medical gloves, and solar cells	9/27/2024
  	IEEPA China	All goods of Chinese origin	2/1/2025
  	IEEPA China Reciprocal	All goods of Chinese origin, except smartphones, computers, and other electronics	4/9/2025
  Canada	IEEPA Canada	All goods, except USMCA qualifying goods	3/4/2025	25%, except 10% on energy products
  Mexico	IEEPA Mexico	All goods, except USMCA qualifying goods	3/4/2025	25%
  All	Sec 232 Steel / Aluminum & Derivatives	Steel, aluminum, and certain derivatives of steel and aluminum	3/12/2025	25%
  All	Automotive	Passenger vehicles, light trucks, engines and engine parts, transmission and powertrain parts, and electrical components	4/2/2025	25%
  All	IEEPA Reciprocal	All goods, except goods subject to other Sec 232 tariffs and goods from countries that have a specific IEEPA tariffs	4/5/2025	10%

  
  

  Threatened US Tariffs
  Target Country	Goods Targeted	Effective Date	Tariff %
  All Countries	Lumber, Copper, Food Imports	Unknown	Unspecified
  All Countries	Pharmaceuticals	Unknown	25% (assumed)
  All Countries	Semiconductors / Chips	Unknown	25% (assumed)
  All Countries	Medium and Heavy-Duty Trucks	Unknown	25% (assumed)
  Nations that import Venezuelan oil	All Goods	Unknown	25%

• Jobless Claims

• • • Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 222,000 in the week ended April 18, up 6,000 from the prior week.
    • The four-week moving average was 220,250, down 750 from the prior week.
    • Continuing claims – those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week – decreased by 37,000 to 1.841 million in the week ended April 11. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

• Fed’s Balance Sheet

• • • The Federal Reserves assets totaled $6.727 trillion in the week ended April 25, down $0.2 billion from the prior week.
    • Treasury holdings totaled $4.218 trillion, down $1.5 billion from the prior week.
    • Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.19 trillion in the week, down $1.6 billion from the prior week.

• Total Public Debt

• • • Total public debt outstanding was $36.22 trillion as of April 25, an increase of 4.8% from the previous year.
    • Debt held by the public was $28.89 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.30 trillion.

• GDP

• • • The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $29.72 trillion as of December 31, an increase of 5.04% from the previous year
    • The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.85% as of December 31, an increase of 1.69% from the previous year

• Inflation Factors

• CPI:

• • • • The consumer-price index rose 2.4% in March year over year.
      • On a monthly basis, the CPI decreased -0.1% in March on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in February.
      • The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.1% in March, after rising 0.2% in February.
      • Core CPI increased 2.8% for the 12 months ending March.

• Food & Beverages:

• • • • The food at home index increased 2.4% in March from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.5% in February month over month.
      • The food away from home index increased 3.8% in March from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.4% in March month over month.

• Commodities:

• • • • The energy commodities index decreased (6.1%) in March after decreasing
      • The energy commodities index fell (9.5%) over the last 12 months.
      • The energy services index rose 0.9% in February after increasing 0.8% in February.
      • The energy services index rose 4.2% over the last 12 months.
      • The gasoline index fell (9.8%) over the last 12 months.
      • The fuel oil index fell (7.6%) over the last 12 months.
      • The index for electricity rose 2.8% over the last 12 months.
      • The index for natural gas rose 9.4% over the last 12 months.

• Supply Chain:

• • • • Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,157.33 per 40ft
      • Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (20.3%) over the last 12 months.

• Housing Market:

• • • • The shelter index increased 0.2% in March after increasing 0.3% in February.
      • The rent index increased 0.2% in March after increasing 0.2% in February.
      • The index for lodging away from home increased 0.8% in March after increasing 2.9% in February.

• Federal Funds Rate

• • • The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 4.33%, flat 0.00% year to date.

World News

• Middle East

• • • U.S. and Iran ended nuclear talks in Oman with major disagreements over uranium enrichment but agreed to continue negotiations in Europe
    • Tensions are rising as Iran rapidly advances its nuclear program, while the U.S. demands broader restrictions and threatens military action if no deal is reached
    • Jordan and Egypt are facing mounting public anger over the Gaza war, forcing both governments to crack down on dissent while trying to maintain their critical security ties with Israel
    • Pressure has intensified as Israel’s far-right politicians propose relocating Palestinians into Jordan and Egypt, prompting both countries to warn that such moves could destablize their regimes and threaten regional peace

• Europe

• • • Overnight Russian strikes on Kyiv killed 12 and injured 90, marking Moscow’s biggest aerial bombardment of Ukraine’s capital this year
    • President Trump urged Russia’s Putin to halt the attacks, expressing frustration with both sides amid stalled peace negotiations. Ukraine agreed to a U.S.-proposed cease-fire 44 days ago, but Russia declined
    • Spain will raise defense spending to 2% of GDP this year, up from 1.4% last year. Most of Spain’s increased defense budget will go towards improving telecommunications to combat cyberattacks
    • The increased military spending won’t increase taxes or national debt according to Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez and 87% of the money will remain in Spain

• China

• • • China’s leadership pledged new monetary, fiscal, and policy support to boost domestic growth amid mounting pressure from U.S. tariffs and global economic uncertainty
    • Planned measures include cutting interest rates, supporting exports and tech innovation, stabilizing capital markets, and helping companies hurt by tariffs retain workers
    • The Trump administration is considering cutting China tariffs by about half, aiming to ease trade tensions, but any action would require reciprocal steps from Beijing and a final decision from Trump
    • Despite openness to talks, high tariff levels would still severely restrict Chinese imports, while both sides show tentative signs of willingness to restart negotiations amid global market pressures

• South Korea

• • • Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who left office in 2022, was indicted on bribery charges, making him the latest in a line of South Korean leaders facing legal troubles or death after their presidencies

• India

• • • Suspected militants opened fire on tourists in Baisaran Valley, Indian-administered Kashmir, killing at least 25 and injuring 15 in one of the worst recent attacks on civilians, with a militant group claiming responsibility over anger at demographic changes in the region

• Ecuador

• • • Ecuadoreans re-elected President Daniel Noboa, who campaigned on a crackdown on violent transnational gangs smuggling cocaine into the U.S. Despite his efforts, 2025 has been Ecuador’s most violent year to-date, with over 1,500 homicides in January and February

• Sudan

• • • The country’s largest displacement camp, located in the Darfur region, was attacked by the Rapid Support Forces. Camp administrators said at least 500 people were killed, including the entire 10-person staff

• Australia

• • • At Labor’s 2025 campaign launch, PM Anthony Albanese pledged $10B for 100,000 new homes for first-home buyers, announced a $1,000 automatic tax deduction for all workers, emphasized WA’s importance, and took aim at Peter Dutton’s Trump-style politics—while rallying support around fairness, housing, and equality

• Hungary

• • • Hungary announced it would withdraw from the International Criminal Court in response to its arrest warrant for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, marking a significant challenge to the ICC’s authority in Europe

• Canada

• • • Former central banker Mark Carney decisively won Canada’s Liberal Party leadership race and met with outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to prepare a swift power transition, aiming to confront a damaging trade war with President Trump’s United States

• Germany

• • • Germany’s jobless rate rose from 6.2% in February to 6.3% in March. Major companies announced increasing layoffs, which threatens to further increase unemployment

Commodities

• Oil Prices

• • • WTI: $63.02 per barrel
      • (2.57%) WoW; (12.13%) YTD; (23.90%) YoY
    • Brent: $66.91 per barrel
      • (1.55%) WoW; (10.36%) YTD; (23.98%) YoY

• US Production

• • • U.S. oil production amounted to 13.5 million bpd for the week ended April 18, down 0.0 million
      bpd from the prior week.

• Rig Count

• • • The total number of oil rigs amounted to 587, up 2 from last week.

• Inventories

• • • Crude Oil

      • Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 443.1 million barrels, down (2.3%) YoY.
      • Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 88.1% for the week, up from 86.3%
        in the prior week.
      • U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.001 million barrels per day, down (14.0%) YoY.

    • Gasoline

      • Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.16 per gallon in the week of
        April 25, down (13.6%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.10, down (15.0%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.09, down (12.6%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.78, down (16.3%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.25, down (8.9%) YoY.
      • Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.35, down (12.2%)
      • Motor gasoline inventories were down by 4.5 million barrels from the prior week.
      • Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 229.5 million barrels, up 1.2% YoY.
      • Production of motor gasoline averaged 10.07 million bpd, up 10.2% YoY.
      • Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 9.414 million bpd, up 11.8% YoY.

    • Distillates

      • Distillate inventories decreased by -2.4 million in the week of April 25.
      • Total distillate inventories amounted to 106.9 million barrels, down (8.3%) YoY.
      • Distillate production averaged 4.626 million bpd, down (3.2%) YoY.
      • Demand for distillates averaged 3.903 million bpd in the week, up 9.9% YoY.

• Natural Gas

• • • Natural gas inventories increased by 88 billion cubic feet last week.
    • Total natural gas inventories now amount to 1,934 billion cubic feet, down (20.2%) YoY.

Credit News

High yield bond yields decreased 36bps to 7.89% and spreads decreased 37bps to 401bps. Leveraged loan yields decreased 20bps to 8.64% and spreads decreased 21bps to 517bps. WTD Leveraged loan returns were positive 71bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 134bps. 10yr treasury yields decreased 2bps to 4.30%. Yields and spreads declined as the global trade war de-escalates, benefiting risk assets amid resilient economic data, bearish sentiment, strong market technicals, and a positive start to the earnings season. Despite policy uncertainty, high-frequency April readings, including claims, card data, and the DM flash manufacturing PMI, show minimal signs of an anticipated slowdown from earlier trade flows and US spending. Additionally, capital market activity resumed this week.

High-yield:

Week ended 4/25/2025

• Yields & Spreads¹
  
• Pricing & Returns¹
  
• Fund Flows²
  
• New Issue²
  
• Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²
  
• Total HY Defaults
  

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 4/25/2025

• Yields & Spreads¹
  
• Leveraged Loan Index¹
  
• Fund Flows²
  
• New Issue²
  
• Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹
  
• Total Loan Defaults
  

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Astra Acquisition ($1.0bn, 3/10/2025), Mitel Networks ($900mn, 3/9/2025), Rugs USA ($486mn, 3/3/2025), Aimbridge Hospitality ($1.1bn, 1/31/2025), Exela Intermediate LLC ($1.2bn, 1/15/2025), and City Brewing ($886mn, 1/2/2025).

CLOs:

Week ended 4/25/2025

• New U.S. CLO Issuance²
  
• New U.S. CLO Issuance²
  

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings
  

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Source: Credit Suisse Leveraged Loan Index

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

Diagram K: CLO Economics

Diagram L: Developed Country GovBond Yields (%)

Diagram M: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram N: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)x

Diagram O: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram Q: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram R: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram S: SOFR CURVE

Diagram T: CMBS Spreads

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index