Consumer Sentiment

• Consumer sentiment fell to 53.3 in March from 56.6 in February as the Iran war pushed gasoline prices higher and weighed on stocks 
• Higher-income consumers drove much of the decline in sentiment, reflecting their greater exposure to stock-market losses 
• Gasoline prices were up about 33% from a month ago, lifting near-term inflation expectations even as longer-run expectations stayed more contained 

S&P Global PMI

• U.S. business activity slowed to an 11-month low in March, with the S&P Global composite PMI also signaling the first decline in private-sector employment in just over a year
• Companies cited war-driven uncertainty and higher energy costs as a drag on demand, while input prices rose at their fastest pace in over a year
• The report added to stagflation concerns by combining weaker growth with rising inflation pressure

Import Prices

• Import prices rose 1.3% in February, the biggest monthly increase in almost four years, while import prices excluding energy climbed 1.1% 
• Imported energy prices rose almost 3% last month, but price increases were broad-based across categories including food, metals, plastics, chips and electronics 
• The report added to inflation concerns by suggesting price pressure was already building before the Iran war pushed oil and other key material costs higher

Jobless Claims 

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., increased to 210,000 in the week ended March 20, up 5,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 210,500 down 250 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - decreased at 1.819 million in the week ended March 13. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.657 trillion in the week ended March 27, up $1.2 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.367 trillion, up $13.2 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.01 trillion in the week, down $4.0 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.99 trillion as of March 27, an increase of 7.7% from the previous year.
  
• Debt held by the public was $31.36 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.58 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.44 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.11% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 5.42% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.49% as of December 31, an increase of 1.05% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 2.4% in February year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in January
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in February, after rising 0.3% in January
• Core CPI increased 2.5% for the 12 months ending February

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.6% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.4% in February month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.9% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in February month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 1.1% in February after decreasing (3.3%) in January
• The energy commodities index fell (5.2%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index rose (0.1%) in February after increasing 1.4% in January
• The energy services index rose 6.3% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (5.6%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 6.2% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 4.8% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 10.9% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,172.33 per 40ft container for the week of March 20
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (4.0%) over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in February after increasing 0.2% in January
• The rent index increased 0.2% in February after increasing 0.2% in January
• The index for lodging away from home increased 3.8% in February after increasing 2.7% in January

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• Saudi crude exports from Yanbu rose to around 3.4 million barrels a day in March and topped 5 million barrels a day on some days as shipments were rerouted to avoid the Strait of Hormuz 
• The surge has created congestion at Yanbu, where more than 30 tankers were waiting offshore and loading delays stretched to around five days this week
• Iran’s missile launch rate has fallen by more than 90%, but Tehran is still firing around a dozen missiles a day by shifting launches deeper inside the country 
• U.S. and Israeli strikes have destroyed or disabled roughly 330 of Iran’s 470 mobile missile launchers, yet Iran continues to hit less-defended civilian and energy-related targets

Europe

• EU lawmakers voted 417 to 154 to advance legislation tied to the U.S. trade deal, moving the accord closer to implementation 
• The deal would eliminate tariffs on most U.S. goods entering the EU while capping tariffs on EU goods shipped to the U.S. at 15% 
• EU officials said the Iran war could create a stagflationary shock, with EU growth around 0.4 percentage point lower and inflation up to 1 percentage point higher even if energy disruptions are short-lived 
• The European Commission’s November forecast had projected 2026 EU growth at 1.4% and inflation at 2.1%, highlighting the downside risk from a prolonged conflict 

China

• China opened two trade probes into U.S. practices ahead of a Trump-Xi summit scheduled for May 14-15 in Beijing, as both sides seek leverage before talks 
• The Chinese investigations have a six-month deadline and target U.S. actions affecting supply chains, high-tech exports and renewable-energy trade barriers
• President Trump is expected to press Xi Jinping for larger Chinese purchases of U.S. goods at their May 14-15 summit, while Xi will seek language that softens longstanding U.S. support for Taiwan 
• Beijing sees an opening on Taiwan as U.S. policy grows more transactional and military attention remains partly diverted by the Middle East

Venezuela

• A Colombian military C-130 carrying 128 people crashed shortly after takeoff in the southern jungle, killing 66, injuring dozens and prompting criticism over long-standing deficiencies in military aircraft and airport infrastructure

Cuba

• Cuba’s nationwide blackout – driven by an obsolete, oil-dependent power grid and worsened by U.S. oil restrictions – has crippled basic services, intensified economic collapse, and fueled growing social unrest, with no near-term fix in sight

India

• Over 400,000 metric tons of Indian basmati rice are stranded at ports as the Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern shipping lanes, threatening roughly 75% of India's annual basmati rice exports

Hungary

• Hungarian authorities briefly detained seven Oschadbank employees and confiscated over $80 million in cash and gold from trucks en route to Ukraine, escalating a conflict between the two countries over oil deliveries

Canada

• Canada and India signed agreements to deepen ties in critical minerals, energy, and trade, aiming to reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States

North Korea

• According to South Korean intelligence, Kim Jong Un’s daughter Kim Ju Ae is increasingly positioned to succeed her father as Supreme Leader of North Korea. Until recently, she was the only child of Kim Jong Un to never be shown in public

Congo

• Eastern Congo is sliding toward mass hunger not from a lack of food, but because M23’s control around Goma has disrupted farming, blocked imports and aid routes, and driven prices sharply higher for civilians

Japan

• Prime Minster Sanae Takaichi won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections, securing a two-thirds majority in the lower house

Egypt

• The Rafah border between Egypt and Gaza reopened, allowing limited two-way traffic. Israel proposed allowing 150 Palestinians to leave and 50 to enter the checkpoint daily

Oil Prices

• WTI: $99.64 per barrel
• +1.34% WoW; +33.00% YTD; +43.06% YoY
• Brent: $112.57 per barrel
• +0.34% WoW; +43.31% YTD; +52.06% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.7 million bpd for the week ended March 20, down 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 543, down 9 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 456.2 million barrels, up 3.7% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 92.9% for the week, up from 91.4% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 7.194 million barrels per day, down (0.0%) YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.98 per gallon in the week of March 27, up 25.9% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.90, up 26.7% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.77, up 21.6% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.70, up 30.5% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.98, up 25.8% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.39, up 28.7% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 2.6 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 241.4 million barrels, up 1.6% YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.74 million bpd, up 4.9% YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.924 million bpd, up 5.1% YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 3.0 million in the week of March 27
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 119.9 million barrels, up 4.6% YoY
• Distillate production averaged 5.026 million bpd, up 7.5% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.568 million bpd in the week, down (3.0%) YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories decreased by 54 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 1,829 billion cubic feet, up 3.2% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 21bps to 7.66% and spreads widened 2bps to 360bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 18bps to 8.81% while spreads decreased 1bps to 507bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 34bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 16bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 13bps to 4.41%. High yield bond yields increased amid elevated geopolitical uncertainty in the Middle East, a rising interest rate environment, and continued retail outflows. Leveraged loan prices increased slightly, supported by a modest return of retail inflows and a pickup in new issuance activity.

Week ended 03/27/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 03/27/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

Most recent defaults include: Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), and New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 03/27/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

ZCGC Real Estate:

• Price cuts accelerating. Lennar’s average new home price has fallen 24% from its $491k pandemic peak to $374k in Q1 2026, below pre-pandemic levels and the lowest in over a decade.
• Cuts driven by both discounts and incentives. The decline reflects roughly equal parts outright price reductions and buyer incentives, per Lennar’s SEC filings.
• Volume holding despite lower prices. Sales orders remain ~80% above pre-2020 norms, suggesting aggressive pricing is successfully sustaining demand.
• Builder competition intensifying. Lennar’s strategy positions it to challenge D.R. Horton for the top U.S. homebuilder ranking.
• Resale market at risk. The share of homeowners with 6%+ mortgages has exceeded 20%, weakening the lock-in effect and raising spillover risk to broader home prices.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index