Consumer Price Index

• The consumer price index increased by 0.3% in December, meeting forecasts. The core consumer price index rose by 0.2% 

• The consumer price index increased by 2.7% over the last twelve months, unchanged from last month. The core consumer price index increased by 2.6% over the last twelve months
• Shelter was the largest contributor to the change in prices; shelter prices increased by 0.4% in December

Existing Home Sales

• Sales of new single-family homes in October 2025 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of  737,000, 0.1% below the September 2025 rate of 738,000 and 18.7% above the October 2024 rate of 621,000

• The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October 2025 was 488,000, unchanged from September 2025 and 1.7% above the October 2024 estimate of 480,000
• The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2025 was $392,300, 3.3% below the September 2025 price of $405,800 and 8.0% below the October 2024 price of $426,300

U.S. Retail Sales

• Retail sales increased by 0.6% in November, exceeding forecasts and marking the largest monthly increase in four months
• Sales at car dealerships, home centers, gas stations, and clothing stores rose the most. Restaurant sales increased by 0.6% in November
• Preliminary data from Visa and Mastercard suggest that holiday spending was fairly robust 

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• The U.S. and Taiwan finalized a trade agreement cutting U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15 percent from roughly 20 percent, a $250 billion dollars in Taiwanese direct investment commitments to the U.S and an agreement that semiconductors and other related products will receive preferential treatment under Section 232 tariffs
• President Trump signed a proclamation on Jan 14 formally invoking Section 232 imposing a 25% tariff on certain semiconductors, semiconductor manufacturing equipment and related products finding the imports pose a threat to U.S. national security 
• US Supreme Court tariff decision on IEEPA based global tariffs remains pending and the Court’s next scheduled opinion release is Tuesday Jan 20 2026
• US CBP announced it has collected more than 1 billion dollars in duties since phasing out de minimis on low value shipments with the phaseout beginning May 2 2025 for China and Hong Kong and expanding worldwide Aug 29 2025

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 198,000 in the week ended January 9, down 9,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 205,000 down 6,500 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - decreased at 1.884 million in the week ended January 2. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.582 trillion in the week ended January 16, up $8.1 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.242 trillion, up $13.6 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.04 trillion in the week, down $1.7 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.45 trillion as of January 16, an increase of 6.2% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.81 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.67 trillion

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.10 trillion as of September 30, 2025, an increase of 2.00% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 5.37% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 121.04% as of September 30, a increase of 0.87% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 2.7% in November year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.2% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after flat 0.0% in October.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in November, after remaining flat 0.0% in October.
• Core CPI increased 2.6% for the 12 months ending November.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 1.9% in November from the same month a year earlier, and decreased -0.2% in November month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.7% in November from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.5% in November month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 0.7% in November after decreasing 0.0% in October
• The energy commodities index rose 1.2% over the last 12 months
• The energy services index rose 0.1% in November after decreasing 0.0% in October
• The energy services index rose 7.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index rose 0.9% over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 11.3% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 6.9% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 9.1% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index decreased to $2445.12 per 40ft container for the week of January 16
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (36.6%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in November after decreasing 0.0% in October
• The rent index increased 0.2% in November after decreasing 0.0% in October
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (8.2%) in November after decreasing 0.0% in October.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• Conservative death counts suggest that the Iranian regime killed between 2,000 and 3,000 protestors since the internet blockade
• Senior U.S. military officials prepared for a strike against Iran on Wednesday, but President Trump was informed that military resources in the region could not guarantee a swift end to the Iranian regime. According to people familiar with the matter, the prospect of a prolonged conflict in Iran convinced Trump to avoid military intervention
• That being said, the U.S. is sending an aircraft-carrier strike group, additional jet fighters, and missile defenses to the region. Based on these movements, regional officials believe a U.S. attack against Iran is still possible
• Now that the protests are mostly quelled, the Iranian regime is slowly reinstating internet access to the country. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei blamed President Trump for the recent unrest and casualties in Iran

Europe

• President Trump announced 10% tariffs against several European countries starting February 1. The tariffs are intended to pressure Denmark to sell Greenland to the United States
• European leaders responded harshly to the announcement. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa stated, “Europe will remain united, coordinated, and committed to upholding its sovereignty.”
• European allies are deploying small contingents of troops to Greenland to protect the arctic island from the United States. This is the first time that European members of NATO have sent soldiers to deter the United States from military action
• Greenland Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen stated that “Greenland does not want to be controlled by the U.S.” A recent poll showed that only 6% of Greenland residents want to join the United States

China

• China’s trade surplus reached a record $1.1 trillion in 2025, demonstrating the resilience of Chinese exports despite U.S. tariffs
• Exports increased 5.5% in 2025, compared with 5.9% growth in 2024. Shipments to the U.S. fell, but China made up for this shortfall in other parts of the world
• China and Canada agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles and Canadian canola during Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s visit to China. President Trump warned that the agreement may be “problematic” for Canada
• A record 983,000 people were disciplined in China last year, a 10.6% increase from 2024. Chinese leader Xi Jinping instructed party discipline inspectors to crack down further in 2026, citing corruption as a major obstacle to the country’s progress

Taiwan

• Taiwan pledged $250 billion to stand up semiconductor factories in the United States. In exchange, the U.S. agreed to cut tariffs on Taiwanese goods from 20% to 15%

Venezuela

• CIA Director John Ratcliffe met with acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez. The two discussed strengthening ties and economic collaboration between Venezuela and the U.S.

Israel

• Israel formally recognized Somaliland to gain intelligence cooperation and secure strategic Red Sea shipping lanes near the Bab al-Mandab Strait, marking a bold diplomatic move that expands its influence into the Horn of Africa despite international condemnation

Russia

• Russia escalated tensions with the U.S. by sending a submarine and additional naval assets to escort an empty oil tanker formerly known as the Bella 1—now re-registered under a Russian flag—after the U.S. Coast Guard pursued the vessel for allegedly transporting sanctioned illicit oil

Thailand

• Thailand and Cambodia agreed to an immediate cease-fire to halt weeks of deadly border clashes that have killed at least 22 civilians

Nigeria

• The U.S. carried out missile strikes on Christmas Day against two alleged Islamic State camps in Nigeria, firing more than a dozen missiles from a Navy warship and killing multiple militants, according to U.S. officials

Venezuela

• The U.S. Coast Guard is pursuing the sanctioned oil tanker Bella 1 in the Atlantic, assembling elite boarding teams and military support after the vessel refused inspection and fled; U.S. officials say the ship is linked to Iranian and Venezuelan oil networks and is under a judicial seizure order

Canada

• British Columbia’s Supreme Court ruled that a group of indigenous tribes held the right to about 730 acres of privately held land. The ruling may open the doors for other indigenous groups to press their claims, causing uncertainty in the real estate market

Oil Prices

• WTI: $59.44 per barrel
• +0.54% WoW; (17.12%) YTD; (25.74%) YoY
• Brent: $64.13 per barrel
• +1.25% WoW; (14.08%) YTD; (21.11%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.8 million bpd for the week ended January 9, down 0.1 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 543, down 1 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 422.4 million barrels, up 2.6% YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 95.3% for the week, up from 94.7% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.339 million barrels per day, down (5.1%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices were $2.83 per gallon in the week of January 16, down (9.3%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast were $2.86, down (8.1%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest were $2.69, down (9.8%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast were $2.48, down (10.4%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region were $2.55, down (15.0%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast were $3.79, down (4.1%) YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 9.0 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories totaled 251.0 million barrels, up 2.1% YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.03 million bpd, down (2.3%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline was 8.304 million bpd, up 2.7% YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 0.0 million in the week of January 16.
• Total distillate inventories were 129.2 million barrels, up 0.2% YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 5.296 million bpd, up 12.4% YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 4.096 million bpd in the week, down (0.3%) YoY.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories decreased by 71 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,185 billion cubic feet, up 10.1% YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields remained unchanged at 6.58%, while spreads tightened 4bps to 293bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 7bps to 7.85% and spreads flat at 446bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 23bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 11bps. 10yr treasury yields declined 2bps to 4.16%. High yield bond spreads tightened as solid U.S. retail sales, resilient consumer spending, stable labor-market trends, and improving regional manufacturing surveys reinforced confidence in continued economic growth. Leveraged loans posted modest gains, supported by strong inflows, elevated repricing activity, and expectations for a Fed pause at the January meeting.

Week ended 01/16/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 01/16/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

• Most recent defaults include: Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025), Packers Sanitation Services ($1.2bn, 11/5/2025), Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25), and First Brands ($4.4bn, 9/29/25).

CLOs: 

Week ended 01/16/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix: 

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index