ISM Manufacturing

• U.S. manufacturing contracted again in November, with PMI slipping from 48.7 to 48.2 as weak orders and tariff-driven cost pressures persisted
• Manufacturers are cutting jobs and pausing hiring, with several firms directly tying layoffs and offshoring plans to Trump’s tariff environment
• Input prices continue rising and demand remains soft, signaling ongoing inflation pressure and a sluggish manufacturing outlook‍

ISM Services

• U.S. services activity held steady with PMI ticking up slightly from 52.4 to 52.6, but new orders cooled meaningfully
• Services employment remained weak – still below 50 for the sixth straight month – as businesses delay hiring amid tariff uncertainty and AI-driven role changes
• Input prices eased but stayed elevated, signaling inflation may remain sticky even as backlog orders show early signs of stabilizing

Consumer Sentiment

• U.S. consumer sentiment edged up from 51.0 to 53.3, its first monthly increase since July, though it remains 28% below year-ago levels
• Expectations improved – driven by a 13% jump in anticipated personal finances – yet outlooks for jobs and overall financial conditions remain subdued
• Inflation expectations eased to 4.1%, the lowest since January, amid mixed labor data showing falling jobless claims but rising layoffs

U.S. Tariff & Trade

•  U.S. companies such as Costco and Revlon are filing petitions with the Court of International Trade to preserve refund rights if the Supreme Court overturns Trump’s emergency IEEPA tariffs; with no defined refund process and uncertainty over the timing of the ruling, importers are moving early and using multiple pathways to protect their potential claims
• The Trump administration confirmed that general tariff rates on South Korean imports,  including autos,  are being reduced to a 15% cap, with future Sec 232 National Security tariffs on semiconductors and pharma also limited at that level. The agreement is part of a broader “investment-for-tariff-relief” framework, with South Korea committing roughly $350B in U.S. strategic-sector investments
• After three weeks of declines, ocean carriers saw a mini-rebound off recessionary floors, with the Drewry World Container Index up 7% WoW to $1,927/FEU; Shanghai–LA rose 8% to $2,256/FEU and Shanghai–NY increased 6% to $2,895/FEU. Any lift is expected to be short-lived, however, as the National Retail Federation projects December imports at just 1.75m TEUs — the slowest month since March 2023 and 17.9% below 2024

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 191,000 in the week ended November 28, down 27,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 214,750, down 9,500 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - increased at 1.939 millon in the week ended November 21. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.536 trillion in the week ended December 5, down $16.6 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.190 trillion, down $0.9 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.05 trillion in the week, down $16.3 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.39 trillion as of December 5, an increase of 6.1% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.82 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.62 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $30.49 trillion as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 1.48% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 4.59% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 118.78% as of June 30, a decrease of -0.72% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.0% in September year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in August.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in September, after rising 0.3% in August.
• Core CPI increased 3.0% for the 12 months ending September.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in September month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.1% in September month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 3.8% in September after increasing 1.7% in August
• The energy commodities index fell (0.4%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.8%) in September after decreasing (0.3%) in August
• The energy services index rose 6.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (0.5%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index fell 4.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 5.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 11.7% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $1,851.84 per 40ft container for the week of November 21
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (45.7%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in September after increasing 0.4% in August
• The rent index increased 0.2% in September after increasing 0.4% in August
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (1.4%) in September after increasing 0.3% in August.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.89% , down (0.44%) year to date.

‍

Middle East

• Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu signaled that Israel could agree to a security deal with Syria if Damascus respects a buffer zone along the border and guarantees protection for the Druze minority
• Tensions remain high after recent cross-border clashes, with stalled U.S.-brokered negotiations and Israel keeping troops in southern Syria to prevent militant entrenchment
• Yasser Abu Shabab, leader of the Israeli-backed anti-Hamas militia Popular Force in southern Gaza, was killed during a clan dispute, removing a key figure in Israel’s strategy to build armed alternatives to Hamas
• His death underscores the challenges of Israel’s policy, as small militias face infighting, limited popular support, and accusations of looting, while Hamas continues to reassert control over Gaza

Europe

• Eurozone retail sales were flat in October after a slight September increase, with Germany and France seeing declines while Spain remained steady, signaling cautious consumer spending
• Despite steady consumer confidence and low unemployment, economic recovery depends on increased consumption, which could be supported by falling savings rates and rising disposable income
• European leaders cautioned Zelensky not to accept Russian demands without securing explicit and enforceable U.S. security guarantees
• Ukrainian and European officials are pushing for clarity on Washington’s role in protecting Ukraine before any peace deal is finalized

China

• China’s official manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.2 in November from 49.0 in October, signaling a modest improvement in growth momentum but marking the eighth consecutive month of contraction
• Production and new orders showed some gains, while export orders remained weak, and the broader nonmanufacturing sector also slipped further into contraction amid fading holiday effects and a weak property market
• Chinese rare-earth magnet companies are finding legal workarounds to Beijing’s export restrictions by altering magnet formulas and embedding magnets in motors, keeping sales flowing to Western buyers
• These strategies, though sometimes affecting performance, reflect China’s global dominance in rare-earth supply while highlighting Western efforts to develop alternative sources

India 

• Russian President Vladimir Putin is visiting India to bolster ties by offering discounted Russian oil and military hardware, even as India faces U.S. tariffs over its Russian oil imports and seeks to maintain leverage with Washington while securing energy and defense needs

Venezuela 

• President Trump declared the airspace “above and surrounding Venezuela” to be effectively closed and warned Nicolás Maduro that Washington could consider the use of force if he doesn’t step down, underscoring a sharp escalation in U.S.–Venezuela tensions

Israel

• Israel asked the International Criminal Court to nullify an arrest warrant against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu because of sexual assault allegations facing the Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan, which Israel claims impacted Khan’s decision to seek the warrant

Argentina

• A planned $20 billion bailout for Argentina from U.S. banks was shelved as they shift to a smaller, short-term loan package. Banks are now considering a $5 billion solution to help Argentina meet a $4 billion debt payment in January

UK

• U.K. markets fell sharply after reports that the Labour government may drop planned income-tax hikes, raising investor concerns about fiscal credibility and a growing budget shortfall ahead of the Nov. 26 budget

Tanzania

• Tanzania’s government, led by President Samia Suluhu Hassan, crushed Gen Z–driven protests over a disputed election and rising living costs with lethal force—opposition groups

Sudan

• Sudan’s civil war has taken a brutal turn in Darfur, where the Rapid Support Forces – an Arab-led militia backed by the U.A.E. and armed with Chinese drones – are carrying out mass killings and executions of civilians in El Fasher, prompting warnings of a potential genocide

France

• French police arrested suspects in the Louvre Museum heist, including one attempting to flee France from Charles de Gaulle Airport. Four thieves used a truck-mounted lift and angle grinders to steal eight pieces of jewelry valued at $102 million USD

Oil Prices

• WTI: $60.08 per barrel
• +2.61% WoW; (19.05%) YTD; (12.34%) YoY
• Brent: $63.78 per barrel
• +0.92% WoW; (16.18%) YTD; (11.80%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.8 million bpd for the week ended November 28, up 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 549, up 5 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 427.5 million barrels, up 1.3% YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 94.1% for the week, up from 92.3% in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.436 million barrels per day, down (0.1%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices were $2.98 per gallon in the week of December 5, down (1.4%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast were $3.05, down (1.7%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest were $2.83, down (5.3%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast were $2.65, down (1.1%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region were $2.91, down (0.1%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast were $4.16, up 4.2% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were up by 4.5 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories totaled 214.4 million barrels, down (2.4%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.75 million bpd, down (2.9%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline was 8.326 million bpd, down (5.5%) YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by 2.1 million in the week of December 5.
• Total distillate inventories were 114.3 million barrels, down (5.8%) YoY.
• Distillate production averaged 5.051 million bpd, down (3.4%) YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.430 million bpd in the week, down (0.6%) YoY.

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories decreased by 12 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,923 billion cubic feet, up 4.7% YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields decreased 7bps to 6.71% and spreads decreased 15bps to 310bps. Leveraged loan yields were unchanged at 7.85% and spreads decreased 5bps to 458bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 31bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 20bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 11bps to 4.11%. High yield and leveraged loan spreads tightened this week amid mixed macro data, including strong PMIs, softer ADP readings, and steady jobless claims, while inflows continued to accelerate in high yield.

Week ended 12/05/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 12/05/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

• Most recent defaults include: New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025), Packers Sanitation Services ($1.2bn, 11/5/2025), Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25), First Brands ($4.4bn, 9/29/25), Spirit Airlines ($852mn, 8/29/25), ModivCare ($1.1bn, 8/20/25), Anastasia Beverly Hills ($606mn, 8/11/25), Claire’s Stores ($506mn, 8/6/25).

CLOs: 

Week ended 12/05/2025

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix: 

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

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Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

‍Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram R: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index