Jobless Claims

• Jobless claims fell to 205K (a two-month low), with unadjusted claims hitting a five-month low, signaling layoffs remain limited 
• The labor market remains “low-hire, low-fire,” with near-zero net job creation but companies largely avoiding layoffs 
• Unemployment remains historically low (~4.4%), indicating overall labor market stability despite weak hiring momentum

FOMC Interest Rate Decision

• The FOMC voted 11-1 to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%–3.75%, with the committee flagging elevated uncertainty and the Iran conflict's unclear implications for the U.S. economy 
• Updated projections raised 2026 GDP growth to 2.4%, lifted core PCE inflation to 2.7%, and held unemployment at 4.4% 
• Chair Powell said the "bar is a little bit higher for cutting rates" and acknowledged inflation progress has been slower than hoped, adding it is too soon to assess the full economic impact of the Middle East conflict

Producer Price Index

• The PPI for final demand surged 0.7% in February, more than double the 0.3% consensus estimate, while the 12-month rate accelerated to 3.4% - the highest since February 2025 
• Core PPI rose 0.5% month over month and 3.9% year over year, both above forecasts, with services costs up 0.5% driven by traveler accommodation and financial services fees 
• Final demand goods prices climbed 1.1%, the largest increase since August 2023, fueled by a 48.9% spike in fresh and dry vegetable prices and a 2.3% rise in energy costs - all predating the full impact of the Iran-driven oil price surge 

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• CBP continues to make progress on CAPE, the new ACE based system being developed to process IEEPA tariff refunds, with development advancing across its four modules including Claim Portal at 73% and Review and Liquidation at 80% both in testing, Refunds at 63%, and Mass Processing at 45%, signaling transition into full system testing ahead of the mid April launch; next progress report is due on March 31st
• CBP informally reinforced its Section 232 valuation position this week, providing additional guidance that duties apply to the full entered value of steel and aluminum articles, rejecting industry attempts to exclude downstream costs such as processing, fabrication or overhead, signaling increased enforcement risk around valuation strategies
• CBP released ruling HQ H350772 clarifying that AI and technology automation platforms cannot transact customs business, which includes preparing entry data, filing importer forms, or providing complete HTS classification, unless they are properly licensed; the ruling significantly constrains many of the AI/technology companies that have entered the space
• Previously negotiated trade agreements are beginning to diverge, with Malaysia withdrawing from its agreement with the U.S., India delaying negotiations, and South Korea advancing its commitment following parliamentary approval of a $350B U.S. investment framework tied to its trade agreement

Jobless Claims

• Initial jobless claims, a measure of how many workers were laid off across the U.S., decreased to 205,000 in the week ended March 13, down 8,000 from the prior week.
• The four-week moving average was 210,750 down 750 from the prior week.
• Continuing claims - those filed by workers unemployed for longer than a week - increased at 1.857 million in the week ended March 6. This figure is reported with a one-week lag.

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.656 trillion in the week ended March 20, up $9.6 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.354 trillion, up $9.1 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.01 trillion in the week, down $0.0 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt 

• Total public debt outstanding was $39.00 trillion as of March 20, an increase of 7.7% from the previous year.
  
• Debt held by the public was $31.39 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.58 trillion

‍

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S. GDP stands at $31.49 trillion as of December 31, 2025, an increase of 1.26% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 5.58% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 122.31% as of December 31, an increase of 0.87% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 2.4% in February year over year
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.2% in January
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in February, after rising 0.3% in January
• Core CPI increased 2.5% for the 12 months ending February

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.6% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.4% in February month over month
• The food away from home index increased 3.9% in February from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in February month over month

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 1.1% in February after decreasing (3.3%) in January
• The energy commodities index fell (5.2%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index rose (0.1%) in February after increasing 1.4% in January
• The energy services index rose 6.3% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (5.6%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index rose 6.2% over the last 12 months
• The index for electricity rose 4.8% over the last 12 months
• The index for natural gas rose 10.9% over the last 12 months

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $2,172.33 per 40ft container for the week of March 20
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (4.0%) over the last 12 months

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in February after increasing 0.2% in January
• The rent index increased 0.2% in February after increasing 0.2% in January
• The index for lodging away from home increased 3.8% in February after increasing 2.7% in January

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.64%, flat 0.00% year to date

Middle East

• Israel’s strike on Iran’s South Pars gas field, the source of ~80% of the country’s electricity and a cornerstone of its industrial base, exposed a critical vulnerability at the heart of Iran’s economy 
• Damage to processing facilities has already forced production cuts, with risks to power generation, petrochemicals, and regional energy flows, pushing oil prices above $100
• The U.S. has escalated efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, deploying A-10 warplanes and Apache helicopters to target Iranian boats, drones, and missile systems disrupting shipping 
• Despite destroying 100+ Iranian vessels, clearing the strait could take weeks, with mines, missiles, and swarm tactics still threatening a chokepoint that carries ~20% of global oil supply

Europe

• U.K. government borrowing rose to £14.3B in February, up £2.2B YoY, though the deficit was still trending lower overall and on track to improve pre-Iran conflict 
• Surging energy prices following the Middle East escalation risk slowing growth, pressuring tax revenues, and potentially forcing tighter policy from the Bank of England 
• German investor sentiment collapsed in March, with the ZEW index plunging from 58.3 to minus 0.5, well below expectations, as energy prices surged 
• The shock raises risks to Germany’s recovery, particularly across energy-intensive industries, and could reinforce higher inflation and tighter ECB policy expectations 

China

• China’s share of the global economy (in dollar terms) has fallen from ~18.5% in 2021 to ~16.5% in 2025, now less than two-thirds the size of the U.S. economy 
• Deflation and a weaker yuan are eroding the dollar value of China’s output, undermining its global economic weight despite continued real growth and strong export performance
• U.S. intelligence now assesses China is unlikely to invade Taiwan by 2027, walking back prior expectations of a near-term military timeline 
• Beijing still aims for eventual unification (by 2049) but appears to favor non-military paths for now, viewing an amphibious invasion as high-risk despite continued military buildup

Cuba

• Cuba’s nationwide blackout – driven by an obsolete, oil-dependent power grid and worsened by U.S. oil restrictions – has crippled basic services, intensified economic collapse, and fueled growing social unrest, with no near-term fix in sight

India

• Over 400,000 metric tons of Indian basmati rice are stranded at ports as the Iran war disrupts Middle Eastern shipping lanes, threatening roughly 75% of India's annual basmati rice exports

Hungary

• Hungarian authorities briefly detained seven Oschadbank employees and confiscated over $80 million in cash and gold from trucks en route to Ukraine, escalating a conflict between the two countries over oil deliveries

Canada

• Canada and India signed agreements to deepen ties in critical minerals, energy, and trade, aiming to reduce Canada’s reliance on the United States

North Korea

• According to South Korean intelligence, Kim Jong Un’s daughter Kim Ju Ae is increasingly positioned to succeed her father as Supreme Leader of North Korea. Until recently, she was the only child of Kim Jong Un to never be shown in public

Congo

• Eastern Congo is sliding toward mass hunger not from a lack of food, but because M23’s control around Goma has disrupted farming, blocked imports and aid routes, and driven prices sharply higher for civilians

Venezuela

• The U.S. issued a broad license allowing major global energy companies to resume and expand oil and gas investments in Venezuela following reforms to its hydrocarbon law, with revenues structured through U.S.-supervised channels

Japan

• Prime Minster Sanae Takaichi won a landslide victory in parliamentary elections, securing a two-thirds majority in the lower house

Egypt

• The Rafah border between Egypt and Gaza reopened, allowing limited two-way traffic. Israel proposed allowing 150 Palestinians to leave and 50 to enter the checkpoint daily

Oil Prices

• WTI: $98.32 per barrel
• (0.40%) WoW; +31.23% YTD; +46.40% YoY
• Brent: $112.57 per barrel
• +9.14% WoW; +43.31% YTD; +56.35% YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.7 million bpd for the week ended March 13, down 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 552, down 1 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 449.3 million barrels, up 3.6% YoY
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 91.4% for the week, up from 90.8% in the prior week
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 6.422 million barrels per day, down 16.1% YoY

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.91 per gallon in the week of March 20, up 25.1% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.69, up 20.5% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $3.48, up 16.9% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $3.51, up 28.6% YoY
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.77, up 20.9% YoY
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $5.12, up 22.0% YoY
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 5.4 million barrels from the prior week
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 244.0 million barrels, up 2.1% YoY
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.43 million bpd, up 2.2% YoY
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.728 million bpd, up 1.0% YoY

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -2.5 million in the week of March 20
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 116.9 million barrels, up 2.2% YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.869 million bpd, up 7.9% YoY
• Demand for distillates averaged 4.399 million bpd in the week, up 21.0% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 35 billion cubic feet last week
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 1,883 billion cubic feet, up 8.0% YoY

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 13bps to 7.45% and spreads widened 9bps to 359bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 9bps to 8.63% and spreads increased 5bps to 508bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 26bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 2bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 1bps to 4.28%. High yield spreads widened amid escalating Middle East conflicts and largest weekly outflows since Liberation Day. Leveraged loan prices declined due to limited new issuance, continued retail withdrawals, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

Week ended 03/20/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 03/20/2026

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity: 

Most recent defaults include: Cumulus Media ($641mn, 03/05/2026), Trinseo ($390mn, 02/17/2026), Beasley Broadcasting Group ($189mn, 02/01/2026), Nine Energy Service ($300mn, 02/01/2026), Multi-Color ($4.5bn, 01/29/2026), Pretium Packaging ($201mn, 01/28/2026), Saks Global Enterprises ($2.7bn, 12/30/2025), United Site Services ($2.6bn, 11/30/2025), and New Fortress Energy ($3.5bn, 11/15/2025).

CLOs: 

Week ended 03/20/2026

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note: High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index

² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity: 

S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price  

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns 

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM 

Diagram L: CLO Economics 

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts ($B)

Diagram R: Dry Powder for All US Debt ($B)

Diagram S: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram T: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram U: SOFR Curve

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads 

Real Estate

• Transaction market frozen. U.S. existing home sales have fallen to ~4.1M annualized, the lowest February level since the 2009 housing crisis
• Demand shock from rates. Mortgage rates near 6–7% have doubled the monthly payment versus 2021 levels, sidelining marginal buyers.
• Price rigidity remains. Sales volumes collapsed but home prices have not reset materially because owners locked into 2–3% mortgages refuse to sell.
• Inventory mismatch. Supply remains structurally tight while affordability is historically weak, producing the lowest transaction liquidity in decades.
• Clearing mechanism is simple. Activity returns only if mortgage rates fall materially or home prices adjust downward to restore affordability.

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index