Home Price Index

• The S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index rose 1.5% year-over-year in August, easing slightly from a 1.6% increase in July
• In real terms, housing wealth continued to slip for the fourth straight month, as the modest 1.5% gain lagged behind 3% inflation
• Month over month, home prices declined in 19 of the 20 tracked metro areas with Chicago being the lone exception

Consumer Confidence

• Consumers grew more optimistic about job prospects in October, with the Conference Board’s labor-market differential rising to 9.4 from 8.7, its largest gain this year
• Economists said the improvement was a welcome surprise amid negative labor-market sentiment, even as overall consumer confidence edged down to 94.6, the lowest since April
• Despite steady spending data, surveys point to softer holiday demand, with consumers expecting to spend 3.9% less on gifts than last year

Pending Home Sales

• Pending home sales were unchanged in September and down 0.9% year over year, signaling a steady but subdued housing market
• Regional results were mixed, with contract signings rising in the Northeast and South but falling in the Midwest and West
• Buyer options are expanding as inventory hits a five-year high, though sales remain soft amid job-market uncertainty and potential government shutdown effects

U.S. Tariff & Trade‍

• President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a limited trade truce in Busan, with the U.S. agreeing to halve the 20% “fentanyl-related” surcharge on Chinese goods as China committed to resume large-scale agricultural purchases, suspend newly announced rare earth export restrictions for one year, and join the U.S. in pausing reciprocal port and vessel fees
• The U.S. announced new trade agreements with Malaysia and Cambodia and framework accords with Thailand and Vietnam, maintaining existing “reciprocal” tariffs (19%–20%) but removing duties on select product lists; Malaysia will grant preferential access for U.S. industrial and agricultural exports, Cambodia will eliminate tariffs on all U.S. goods, Thailand will remove barriers on 99% of products, and Vietnam will lift tariffs on nearly all U.S. exports
• The Supreme Court will begin hearing arguments on November 5 in the case challenging President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs; lower courts previously ruled the actions exceeded presidential authority, and a bipartisan group of senators filed briefs opposing the administration’s position, with a ruling expected by late 2025 or early 2026

Jobless Claims

• The jobless claims report was not released last week due to the U.S. government shutdown

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.587 trillion in the week ended October 31, down $2.5 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.197 trillion, up $0.2 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.08 trillion in the week, down $8.8 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.11 trillion as of October 31, an increase of 6.3% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.52 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.36 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $30.49 trillion as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 1.48% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 4.59% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 118.78% as of June 30, a decrease of -0.72% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.0% in September year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in August.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in September, after rising 0.3% in August.
• Core CPI increased 3.0% for the 12 months ending September.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in September month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.1% in September month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 3.8% in Septemer after increasing 1.7% in August
• The energy commodities index fell (0.4%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.8%) in September after decreasing (0.3%) in August
• The energy services index rose 6.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (0.5%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index fell 4.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 5.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 11.7% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $1,746.08 per 40ft container for the week of October 24
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (43.6%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in August after increasing 0.4% in August
• The rent index increased 0.2% in August after increasing 0.4% in August
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (1.4%) in September after increasing 0.3% in August.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.87% , down (0.46%) year to date.

Middle East

• Israel’s Military Advocate General, Major General Yifat Tomer-Yerushalmi, resigned effective immediately amid an investigation into her alleged role in leaking and covering up footage of abuse at the Sde Teiman facility
• Defense Minister Israel Katz will appoint a successor from candidates compiled by Chief of Staff Lt. General Eyal Zamir as the probe unfolds amid fierce political pressure and debates over soldier accountability
• Hezbollah is rebuilding its weapons stockpile and ranks in defiance of last year’s cease-fire deal, using Iranian support and smuggling routes through Syria, raising fears of renewed conflict with Israel
• Israel, frustrated by the group’s rearmament and limited Lebanese progress on disarmament, has conducted over 1,000 strikes since the truce, warning it may act unilaterally if Beirut fails to curb Hezbollah’s buildup

Europe

• Dutch far-right leader Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party suffered heavy losses in national elections, losing about a third of its seats and likely ending his brief time in power after a turbulent year marked by stalled immigration reforms
• Analysts say Wilders’ downfall underscores the challenges populist leaders face when moving from opposition to governance, as his refusal to compromise, alienated coalition partners and eroded voter confidence
• The Trump administration is withdrawing an Army combat brigade from Romania as part of a new defense strategy prioritizing U.S. military presence in the Western Hemisphere and Asia, prompting sharp criticism from congressional defense leaders
• Pentagon officials said the move reflects a shift toward greater European responsibility for regional defense

China

• China’s manufacturing activity contracted for a seventh straight month in October, with the official PMI falling to 49.0 amid weak export orders and continued property-sector drag
• Economists said the slowdown is unlikely to trigger major stimulus this year, as Beijing remains on track to meet its 5% growth target and may wait until early 2026 for more proactive fiscal measures
• The U.S. agreed to cut fentanyl-related tariffs on China to 10% in exchange for Beijing curbing precursor shipments, resuming soybean purchases, and pausing some export controls
• Brokered in part by Senator Steve Daines after months of talks, the deal is fragile, with “market price” language potentially limiting U.S. soybean sales and broader geopolitical frictions still unresolved

Sudan

• Sudan’s civil war has taken a brutal turn in Darfur, where the Rapid Support Forces – an Arab-led militia backed by the U.A.E. and armed with Chinese drones – are carrying out mass killings and executions of civilians in El Fasher, prompting warnings of a potential genocide

France

• French police arrested suspects in the Louvre Museum heist, including one attempting to flee France from Charles de Gaulle Airport. Four thieves used a truck-mounted lift and angle grinders to steal eight pieces of jewelry valued at $102 million USD

Venezuela

• Venezuela mobilized troops and militias as President Nicolás Maduro responded to a major U.S. military buildup in the Caribbean, the largest since the 1980s. While Maduro pledged readiness for combat, analysts say Venezuela’s forces are ill-equipped and symbolic against U.S. power, which includes warships, bombers, and special forces deployed under Trump’s anti-narcotics campaign

India

• After President Trump claimed that India agreed to stop buying Russian oil, New Delhi issued a carefully worded response—neither confirming nor directly denying the statement—to avoid jeopardizing ongoing trade talks with Washington. India emphasized its efforts to diversify energy sources and expand U.S. imports, while analysts noted that reducing reliance on Russian crude, which supplies about one-third of India’s oil, would be difficult and costly in the near term

Colombia

• President Trump said the U.S. will immediately cut off all aid and subsidies to Colombia, saying President Gustavo Petro’s government hasn’t done enough to curb drug production. The decision affects over $200 million in U.S. assistance and follows rising tensions between the two countries over anti-narcotics policy

Japan

• Japan’s ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi faces a major obstacle to becoming prime minister after coalition partner Komeito withdrew support over political-finance disputes, leaving her to seek backing from other lawmakers ahead of a potential Trump visit

Haiti

• The HOPE/HELP trade program, which allowed duty-free textile imports from Haiti to the U.S., expired at the end of September, hitting Haiti’s largest industry

Turkey

• President Trump signaled he may lift sanctions on Turkey and sell F-35 jets to Ankara if talks go well, while urging President Erdogan to stop buying Russian energy and highlighting closer U.S.-Turkey cooperation after years of tense relations

Oil Prices

• WTI: $60.87 per barrel
  
• (1.02%) WoW; (15.11%) YTD; (11.28%) YoY
• Brent: $65.07 per barrel
  
• (1.32%) WoW; (13.55%) YTD; (10.31%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.6 million bpd for the week ended October 24, up 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 546, down 4 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 416.0 million barrels, down (2.7) YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 86.6% for the week, down from 88.6%
  in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.918 million barrels per day, down (19.1%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.04 per gallon in the week of
  October 31, down (2.3%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.03, down (4.1%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $2.96, down (1.5%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.68, down (2.3%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.10, down (6.7%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.24, up 3.1% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 5.9 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 210.7 million barrels, down (0.3%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.59 million bpd, down (1.2%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.924 million bpd, up 1.1% YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -3.4 million in the week of October 31
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 112.2 million barrels, down (3.1%) YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.498 million bpd, down (11.7%) YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.580 million bpd in the week, up 5.1% YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 74 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,882 billion cubic feet, down (1.2%) YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 7bps to 6.96% and spreads increased 1bp to 337bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 7bps to 7.87% and spreads decreased 5bps to 454bps. WTD high yield bond returns were positive 16bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 34bps. 10yr treasury yields increased 10bps to 4.09%. High yield spreads widened modestly, while HY funds recorded their first inflow in three weeks following a Fed rate cut accompanied by a hawkish outlook on future policy. Leveraged loans recorded their strongest weekly return since mid-July, supported by moderating outflows.

Week ended 10/31/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 10/31/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Leveraged Loan Index¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Todal Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25), First Brands ($4.4bn, 9/29/25), Spirit Airlines ($852mn, 8/29/25), ModivCare ($1.1bn, 8/20/25), Anastasia Beverly Hills ($606mn, 8/11/25), Claire’s Stores ($506mn, 8/6/25), Maverick Gaming ($215mn, 7/17/25), and Del Monte Foods ($864mn, 7/2/25).

CLOs:

Week ended 10/31/2025

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

‍Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram R: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram S: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram T: SOFR CURVE

Diagram U: CMBS Spreads

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

‍

ZCGC Real Estate

‍

• The first graph shows the U.S. dominance in data centers, with 5,426 facilities, more than all other major countries combined, and about 40 billion dollars in new projects under construction, a 400 percent increase since 2022.
• The second graph shows that U.S. data center construction spending has surged about 366 percent since 2021 and 430 percent since 2018, reaching around 3.5 billion dollars in June 2025 alone.
• Electric power infrastructure spending, including generation, substations, and transmission, has risen about 67 percent since 2018 to roughly 9 to 10 billion dollars per month, driven by AI and cloud demand.
• This signals a pivot toward power anchored development, with sites prioritized for energy capacity, cooling, and fiber rather than tenant mix or street frontage.

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index