Manufacturing Index

• American manufacturing contracted for the eighth consecutive month, with the ISM index falling to 48.7% in October from 49.1%
• High tariffs imposed by the Trump administration are cited by executives as increasing costs, depressing sales, and leading to layoffs
• Production declined, new orders contracted for the eighth time in nine months, and manufacturing employment has not grown since January

Services Index

• The ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4% in October, up from 50.0% in September, signaling renewed expansion after a brief slowdown and marking the 65^th consecutive month of overall economic growth
• New orders climbed to 56.2%, the highest since October 2024, while business activity rebounded to 54.3%; however, employment remained in contraction for a fifth month at 48.2%
• Input prices accelerated to 70.0%, a three-year high, as 16 of 18 service industries, including accommodation, retail, real estate, and information, reported rising costs, underscoring persistent inflationary pressures despite easing supply constraints 

Consumer Credit

• Credit card spending remains resilient, with total balances reaching a record high, signaling that consumers continue to spend despite elevated borrowing costs
• Spending on credit cards across six of the country’s largest issuers rose 7.5% in the third quarter compared to last year, continuing to outpace inflation
• Delinquencies are rising, particularly among lower-income borrowers and younger consumers, suggesting growing financial strain as pandemic savings dwindle and credit conditions tighten

U.S. Tariff & Trade

• The U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments on President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose tariffs, with questions from both conservative and liberal justices — including Barrett, Kavanaugh, Gorsuch, Sotomayor, Kagan, and Jackson — reflecting bipartisan skepticism toward the administration’s broad interpretation, suggesting the Court may ultimately limit the scope of IEEPA tariff authority
• Following last week’s trade truce with Beijing, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) confirmed that the “fentanyl-related” tariff on Chinese imports will be reduced from 20% to 10% beginning Nov 10^th, with Section 301 exclusions extended through November 2026
• U.S. imports from China fell roughly 25% year-on-year in October 2025, reflecting one of the steepest declines since early 2023 
• A November 1 General Rate Increase (GRI) of approximately $800/FEU on the trans-Pacific trade briefly lifted ocean container spot rates to around $2,750/FEU following the China/US trade truce, but gains eroded within days amid continued structural weakness in eastbound trans-Pacific demand

Jobless Claims

• The jobless claims report was not released last week due to the U.S. government shutdown

Fed’s Balance Sheet

• The Federal Reserve's assets totaled $6.573 trillion in the week ended November 7, down $14.3 billion from the prior week.
• Treasury holdings totaled $4.193 trillion, down $3.4 billion from the prior week.
• Holdings of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) were $2.07 trillion in the week, down $14.6 billion from the prior week.

Total Public Debt

• Total public debt outstanding was $38.12 trillion as of November 7, an increase of 6.0% from the previous year.
• Debt held by the public was $30.61 trillion, and intragovernmental holdings were $7.47 trillion.

GDP

• The latest annualized U.S GDP stands at $30.49 trillion as of June 30, 2025, an increase of 1.48% from the previous quarter , & an increase of 4.59% from the previous year
• The total public debt-to-GDP ratio is at 118.78% as of June 30, a decrease of -0.72% from the previous year

Inflation Factors

CPI:

• The consumer-price index rose 3.0% in September year over year.
• On a monthly basis, the CPI increased 0.3% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.4% in August.
• The index for all items less food and energy (core CPI) rose 0.2% in September, after rising 0.3% in August.
• Core CPI increased 3.0% for the 12 months ending September.

Food & Beverages:

• The food at home index increased 2.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.3% in September month over month.
• The food away from home index increased 3.7% in September from the same month a year earlier, and increased 0.1% in September month over month.

Commodities:

• The energy commodities index increased 3.8% in September after increasing 1.7% in August
• The energy commodities index fell (0.4%) over the last 12 months
• The energy services index fell (0.8%) in September after decreasing (0.3%) in August
• The energy services index rose 6.4% over the last 12 months
• The gasoline index fell (0.5%) over the last 12 months
• The fuel oil index fell 4.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for electricity rose 5.1% over the last 12 months.
• The index for natural gas rose 11.7% over the last 12 months.

Supply Chain:

• Drewry’s composite World Container Index increased to $1,958.95 per 40ft container for the week of November 7
• Drewry’s composite World Container Index has decreased by (43.1%) over the last 12 months.

Housing Market:

• The shelter index increased 0.2% in August after increasing 0.4% in August
• The rent index increased 0.2% in August after increasing 0.4% in August
• The index for lodging away from home decreased (1.4%) in September after increasing 0.3% in August.

Federal Funds Rate

• The effective Federal Funds Rate is at 3.87% , down (0.46%) year to date.

Middle East

• Iraq’s Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani is seeking re-election on a platform of independence from both the U.S. and Iran, citing troop withdrawals, stability, and an oil-driven construction boom
• Iran-backed militias and rival Shia leaders still constrain his authority, with analysts warning their influence limits Iraq’s ability to chart an autonomous course
• Israel will begin scaling back reservist deployments in Gaza, the West Bank, and the north, marking a shift away from high-intensity warfare as a fragile U.S.-brokered cease-fire with Hamas holds
• The move aims to relieve exhausted reservists after two years of near-continuous fighting, though analysts say Israel remains in a transitional phase between war and peace

Russia

• Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered officials to prepare for potential nuclear tests if the U.S. resumes its own, escalating tensions with President Trump amid stalled peace talks and renewed sanctions
• The move highlights the erosion of arms-control agreements since 2019 and raises fears of a new nuclear arms race, with analysts warning that renewed testing would mark the sharpest escalation since the Cold War
• The U.S. Treasury blocked Swiss trader Gunvor’s planned purchase of Russian oil giant Lukoil’s international assets, calling the company a “Kremlin puppet” as Washington escalates sanctions to curb Moscow’s war funding
• The move derailed a potential $20 billion deal and underscored U.S. efforts to tighten economic pressure on Russia, leaving Lukoil’s global refineries and fuel stations in limbo

China

• China bought billions of dollars in Argentine soybeans soon after Washington approved a $20 billion loan to Buenos Aires, pressuring U.S. prices and underscoring Beijing’s leverage in the ongoing trade dispute
• Trump and Xi later struck a deal for China to buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season and 25 million tons annually for three years, but farmers remain cautious as China expands sourcing from Brazil and Argentina
• Trump officials blocked Nvidia’s request to export its advanced Blackwell AI chips to China, warning the move would endanger U.S. national security and strengthen Beijing’s AI capabilities
• The decision, made before Trump’s meeting with President Xi, leaves Nvidia facing billions in lost sales and underscores the administration’s tougher stance on restricting high-end tech exports to China

Venezuela 

• The Caribbean Sea is now host to an expanded U.S. naval deployment — including the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier group and other warships — aimed at countering alleged drug-cartel movement, heightening tensions with Venezuela and its President Nicolás Maduro over perceived regime-change risks

Sudan

• Sudan’s civil war has taken a brutal turn in Darfur, where the Rapid Support Forces – an Arab-led militia backed by the U.A.E. and armed with Chinese drones – are carrying out mass killings and executions of civilians in El Fasher, prompting warnings of a potential genocide

France

• French police arrested suspects in the Louvre Museum heist, including one attempting to flee France from Charles de Gaulle Airport. Four thieves used a truck-mounted lift and angle grinders to steal eight pieces of jewelry valued at $102 million USD

India

• After President Trump claimed that India agreed to stop buying Russian oil, New Delhi issued a carefully worded response—neither confirming nor directly denying the statement—to avoid jeopardizing ongoing trade talks with Washington. India emphasized its efforts to diversify energy sources and expand U.S. imports, while analysts noted that reducing reliance on Russian crude, which supplies about one-third of India’s oil, would be difficult and costly in the near term

Colombia

• President Trump said the U.S. will immediately cut off all aid and subsidies to Colombia, saying President Gustavo Petro’s government hasn’t done enough to curb drug production. The decision affects over $200 million in U.S. assistance and follows rising tensions between the two countries over anti-narcotics policy

Japan

• Japan’s ruling party leader Sanae Takaichi faces a major obstacle to becoming prime minister after coalition partner Komeito withdrew support over political-finance disputes, leaving her to seek backing from other lawmakers ahead of a potential Trump visit

Haiti

• The HOPE/HELP trade program, which allowed duty-free textile imports from Haiti to the U.S., expired at the end of September, hitting Haiti’s largest industry

Turkey

• President Trump signaled he may lift sanctions on Turkey and sell F-35 jets to Ankara if talks go well, while urging President Erdogan to stop buying Russian energy and highlighting closer U.S.-Turkey cooperation after years of tense relations

Oil Prices

• WTI: $59.75 per barrel
  
• (2.02%) WoW; (15.11%) YTD; (16.66%) YoY
• Brent: $63.68 per barrel
  
• (2.14%) WoW; (13.55%) YTD; (15.00%) YoY

US Production

• U.S. oil production amounted to 13.7 million bpd for the week ended October 31, up 0.0 million bpd from the prior week.

Rig Count

• The total number of oil rigs amounted to 548, up 2 from last week.

Inventories

Crude Oil

• Total U.S. crude oil inventories now amount to 421.2 million barrels, down (2.0) YoY.
• Refiners operated at a capacity utilization rate of 86.0% for the week, down from 86.6%
  in the prior week.
• U.S. crude oil imports now amount to 5.051 million barrels per day, down (9.0%) YoY.

Gasoline

• Retail average regular gasoline prices amounted to $3.08 per gallon in the week of
  November 7, down (0.3%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the East Coast amounted to $3.03, down (2.2%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Midwest amounted to $2.91, down (3.4%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the Gulf Coast amounted to $2.61, down (3.9%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices in the Rocky Mountain region amounted to $3.07, down (4.9%) YoY.
• Gasoline prices on the West Coast amounted to $4.26, up 4.5% YoY.
• Motor gasoline inventories were down by 4.7 million barrels from the prior week.
• Motor gasoline inventories amounted to 206.0 million barrels, down (0.4%) YoY.
• Production of motor gasoline averaged 9.83 million bpd, down (4.2%) YoY.
• Demand for motor gasoline amounted to 8.874 million bpd, down (5.4%) YoY.

Distillates

• Distillate inventories decreased by -0.6 million in the week of November 7
• Total distillate inventories amounted to 111.5 million barrels, down (2.5%) YoY
• Distillate production averaged 4.709 million bpd, down (5.2%) YoY.
• Demand for distillates averaged 3.710 million bpd in the week, down (9.5%) YoY

Natural Gas

• Natural gas inventories increased by 33 billion cubic feet last week.
• Total natural gas inventories now amount to 3,915 billion cubic feet, down (1.4%) YoY.

High-yield:

High yield bond yields increased 8bps to 7.04% and spreads increased 5bps to 341bps. Leveraged loan yields increased 2bps to 7.89% and spreads increased 5bps to 459bps. WTD high yield bond returns were negative 29bps. WTD leveraged loan returns were positive 6bps. 10yr treasury yields remained unchanged at 4.09%. High yield and leveraged loan spreads widened amid the ongoing record U.S. government shutdown, mixed labor data showing rising layoffs, and persistent tariff uncertainty. Leveraged loans saw a fourth consecutive week of outflows.

Week ended 11/07/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (trading in excess of 1,000 bps)²

Total HY Defaults

Leveraged loans:

Week ended 11/07/2025

Yields & Spreads¹

Pricing & Returns¹

Fund Flows²

New Issue²

Distressed Level (loan price below $80)¹

Total Leveraged Loan Defaults

Default activity:

• Most recent defaults include: Office Properties Trust ($1.7bn, 10/31/25), GPS Hospitality ($400mn, 10/30/25), Jordan Health Services ($1.0bn, 10/15/25), Astra Acquisition ($1bn, 9/30/25), First Brands ($4.4bn, 9/29/25), Spirit Airlines ($852mn, 8/29/25), ModivCare ($1.1bn, 8/20/25), Anastasia Beverly Hills ($606mn, 8/11/25), Claire’s Stores ($506mn, 8/6/25), Maverick Gaming ($215mn, 7/17/25), and Del Monte Foods ($864mn, 7/2/25).

CLOs:

Week ended 11/07/2025

New U.S. CLO Issuance²

New U.S. CLO YTD Issuance²

Note:High-yield and leveraged loan yields and spreads are swap-adjusted

¹ Source: Credit Suisse High Yield and Leveraged Loan Index
² Source: JP Morgan

Ratings activity:

• S&P and Moody’s High Yield Ratings

Appendix:

Diagram A: Leveraged Loan Trading Levels

Diagram B: High Yield and Leveraged Loan LTM Price

Diagram C: Leveraged Loan and High Yield Returns

Diagram J: New Issue - Leveraged Loan and High Yield

Diagram K: Leveraged Loan + HY Defaults by Sector – LTM

‍Diagram L: CLO Economics

Diagram M: Developed Country Govt. Bond Yields (%)

Diagram N: S&P 500 Historical Multiples

Diagram O: U.S. Middle-Market M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram P: U.S. Large Cap M&A Valuations (EV/EBITDA)

Diagram Q: Dry Powder for All Private Equity Buyouts

Diagram R: Structured Credit Spreads

Diagram S: Structured Credit Yield

Diagram T: SOFR CURVE

Diagram U: CMBS Spreads

Diagram V: CMBS Spreads

Freight Rates

Drewry World Container Index

China-Global & Shanghai Export Container Freight Index